甲醇日评：短期政策预期大于基本面影响-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts. It is recommended to wait and observe temporarily. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is room for the repair of inland downstream profits. The current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes port inventory accumulation likely, which will suppress spot prices in East China [1] Summary by Section 1. Price Information 1.1 Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on July 23, 2025, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.54%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2428 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.34%); MA09 was 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.87%) [1] 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.66%) to 2290 yuan/ton, while in Inner Mongolia, it rose by 47.5 yuan/ton (2.39%) to 2037.5 yuan/ton. In contrast, in Taicang, it decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) to 2410 yuan/ton [1] 1.3 Basis - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 34 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [1] 1.4 Upstream Costs - Some coal prices were stable, such as Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000, while Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 520 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Information - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 419.3 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit dropped by 128 yuan/ton (-36.28%) to 224.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (11.49%) to - 674.07 yuan/ton. Some downstream product profits, like MTBE and formaldehyde, remained unchanged, while acetic acid profit increased by 18.71 yuan/ton (6.68%) to 298.79 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information 3.1 Domestic Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2457 yuan/ton, closing at 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 866,930 lots, and open interest was 666,635 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing [1] 3.2 Foreign Information - In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The estimated loading speed at the port in mid - to - late July is expected to be higher than that in the early part of the month [1] 4. Trading Strategy - After a slight decline in MA the previous day and a rise to 2469 in the night session, considering the weak fundamental outlook and the greater impact of short - term policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and observe [1]