集运指数（欧线）：偏弱震荡，10空单减仓观望，10-12和10-02反套持有

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract and hold reverse spreads for 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 [1][8][12]. - The freight rates in early August showed signs of reaching a peak. Attention should be paid to how other shipping companies respond after Maersk and ONE reduced their prices [9]. - It is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of market cargo volume appears in mid - August and the subsequent decline rate [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On July 24, 2025, the EC2508 contract closed at 2,239.7 points, down 1.60%; the EC2510 contract closed at 1,537.0 points, down 2.72%; the EC2512 contract closed at 1,701.8 points, down 1.55% [1]. - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: In early August, the freight rates of different alliances showed different trends. The static average quote in week 32 was around $3,400/FEU [9]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 97.36, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 27.17 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe: The weekly shipping capacity showed certain fluctuations. The shipping capacity in July - September 2025 was also presented in the table, with the shipping capacity in some periods being 30.0, 27.5, 30.5, etc. (in 10,000 TEU) [7]. - Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe: The monthly average weekly shipping capacity from China to Europe in 2024 and 2025 was presented in a chart, showing different levels in different months [6]. 3.3 Macro News - He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th [3]. - The US has various tariff - related situations with the EU, and the two sides have different stances on tariffs [3]. - US President Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine [3]. 3.4 Forecast for Contracts - 2508 Contract: In a pessimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may fall to between 2,200 - 2,250 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,050 - 2,150 points. In an optimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may remain between 2,300 - 2,350 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,150 - 2,250 points [11]. - 2510 Contract: October is the traditional off - season for the European Line. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be reduced and observed, and the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads should be held [12].