尿素早评：短期政策预期大于基本面影响-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts on the urea market. Although the policy of promoting stable growth in key industries may boost the market sentiment, the supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented [1]. 3. Content Summary by Category a. Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: On July 23, compared with July 22, UR01 closed at 1779 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.66%), UR05 at 1793 yuan/ton (-22 yuan or -1.21%), UR09 at 1773 yuan/ton (-44 yuan or -2.42%), and Shandong spot - related futures at 1830 yuan/ton (-10 yuan or -0.54%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices: Shanxi's spot price dropped to 1690 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.74%), while prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Prices: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained stable. The price of melamine in Jiangsu decreased to 5100 yuan/ton (-100 yuan or -1.92%), while most downstream prices such as compound fertilizer prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1]. b. Market Information - Futures Contract Details: The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1827 yuan/ton, with a high of 1827 yuan/ton, a low of 1760 yuan/ton, a close of 1773 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1788 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 180,800 lots [1]. c. Fundamental Situation - Supply: The daily production of urea is close to 200,000 tons, at a high level, and the enterprise inventory is about 750,000 tons, with a slight de - stocking mainly due to increased port collection [1]. - Demand: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].