棕榈油：宏观助推，警惕情绪回落，豆油：关注中美贸易进展，品种间偏弱

Report Overview - Date: July 24, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Subject: Agricultural Commodity Research Morning Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Boosted by macro factors, but beware of sentiment reversal [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Monitor Sino-US trade progress, relatively weak among varieties [2][4] - Soybean Meal: Affected by concerns over substitution, the futures market is adjusting downward [2][9] - Soybean No. 1: Adjusting downward following the soybean market [2][9] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][12] - Sugar: Monitor the sugarcane crushing progress in Brazil [2][17] - Cotton: Fluctuating with the sentiment of the commodity market [2][22] - Eggs: The peak season arrives early, and the sentiment for culling hens declines [2][29] - Hogs: Strong macro sentiment, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][31] - Peanuts: There is support at the lower level [2][35] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil futures prices showed fluctuations, with the day - session closing price at 8,994 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) and the night - session at 8,952 yuan/ton (down 0.47%). Spot prices remained stable, and the basis in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton [4]. - News: Indonesia's May palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons, and exports soared. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the previous month [5][6]. Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The day - session closing price of soybean oil futures was 8,074 yuan/ton (down 0.02%), and the night - session was 8,062 yuan/ton (down 0.15%). Spot prices in Guangdong dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was 186 yuan/ton [4]. - News: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress, which will affect the price trend of soybean oil [2][4]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - Fundamentals: For DCE soybean meal 2509, the day - session closing price was 3,095 yuan/ton (up 0.62%), and the night - session was 3,041 yuan/ton (down 1.78%). For DCE soybean No. 1 2509, the day - session was 4,217 yuan/ton (up 0.09%), and the night - session was 4,193 yuan/ton (down 0.85%). Spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the trading volume and inventory of soybean meal also changed [9]. - News: On July 23, CBOT soybean futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest and news that China may reduce soybean meal consumption [9][11]. Corn - Fundamentals: Corn futures prices declined slightly. The day - session closing price of C2509 was 2,321 yuan/ton (down 0.17%), and the night - session was 2,315 yuan/ton (down 0.26%). Spot prices in different regions had different trends [12]. - News: The northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, while the container collection prices decreased slightly. The prices in the northeast and north China had different changes [13]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.18 cents/pound (down 0.08%), the mainstream spot price was 6,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures主力 price was 5,834 yuan/ton (up 11). The basis was 206 yuan/ton (down 11) [17]. - News: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress was slow, but the MIX increased significantly year - on - year. Different institutions had different forecasts for the global and domestic sugar supply and demand situation [17][18][19]. Cotton - Fundamentals: Cotton futures prices declined slightly. The day - session closing price of CF2509 was 14,180 yuan/ton (down 0.32%), and the night - session was 14,140 yuan/ton (down 0.28%). Spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [22]. - News: The domestic cotton spot trading was light, the cotton yarn market trading was weak, and the ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [23][24]. Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg futures prices rose. The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,613 yuan/500 kg (up 1.03%), and that of egg 2510 was 3,403 yuan/500 kg (up 0.18%). Spot prices in different regions increased [29]. - News: The peak season for eggs arrives early, and the sentiment for culling hens declines [2][29]. Hogs - Fundamentals: The spot prices in different regions declined, while the futures price of LH2509 was 14,590 yuan/ton (up 210). The trading volume and open interest of different contracts increased [31][34]. - News: Currently in the off - season for consumption, the spot price is weak. The macro sentiment is strong, but the premium on the futures market has increased. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of LH2509 [33]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: Peanut futures prices showed different trends. The closing price of PK510 was 8,142 yuan/ton (up 0.02%), and that of PK511 was 7,972 yuan/ton (down 0.33%). Spot prices remained stable, and the basis in different regions was positive [35]. - News: The raw material procurement in different regions has basically ended, and the market is mainly trading inventory. The new peanut drought has been slightly alleviated [36].