南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution trend affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. The rise in non - ferrous metals is likely due to demand - side factors rather than issues with the US dollar index, gold, or supply. The development of high - quality projects and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may have a significant impact on copper and zinc. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as the price increase has not significantly driven up positions, and there is no need for large - scale capacity optimization on the supply side [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper. The利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the reduction of LME inventory levels, the low - level hovering of the US dollar index, and the positive impact of anti - involution on the non - ferrous metal sector. The利空 factors are the uncertainty of tariff policies, the potential reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,590 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - Raw Material Management: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,590 yuan/ton with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 79,590 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (- 0.19%); the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 79,560 yuan/ton with no change; the LME 3M copper is 9,933.5 US dollars/ton, up 35.5 US dollars (0.36%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6][8]. - Spot Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,790 yuan/ton, 79,875 yuan/ton, 79,630 yuan/ton, and 79,940 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 35 yuan (0.04%), 170 yuan (0.21%), 120 yuan (0.15%), and 110 yuan (0.14%) [10]. Copper Inventory Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE): The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 15,535 tons, down 9,972 tons (- 39.1%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 4,667 tons with no change [15]. - LME: The total LME copper inventory is 124,825 tons, down 25 tons (- 0.02%); European inventory is 28,775 tons, down 475 tons (- 1.62%); Asian inventory is 13,150 tons, down 82,925 tons (- 86.31%); North American inventory is 0 tons [17]. - COMEX: The total COMEX copper inventory is 245,508 tons, up 6,073 tons (2.54%) [20]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 247.47 yuan/ton, down 285.72 yuan (- 746.98%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.9 US dollars/ton, up 0.27 US dollars (- 0.63%) [21].