Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on July 24, 2025. Different futures are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and macro - economic conditions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand remains tight. Suggest rolling long on the monthly spread. The domestic plant operating rate has decreased, and some plants have reduced loads unexpectedly. PTA's operating rate has rebounded, and overall supply has increased. There is still a profit in PX processing [9]. - PTA: The unilateral trend is upward. Pay attention to the long - PTA short - PF spread. Downstream polyester inventory has decreased, and the probability of production cuts has declined. The inventory accumulation speed of PTA has slowed down [9]. - MEG: Conduct a reverse spread on the 9 - 1 monthly spread. The unilateral trend has turned upward. Rising coal prices support the cost of coal - chemical products, and the long - term trend is expected to be upward [10]. 2. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. The trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has declined slightly. The export of small - passenger - car tires in the first half of 2025 was generally at a high level, but there may be a decline in July [11][14][15]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is supported to move sideways. The port inventory of butadiene is at a low level. In the short term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually rising, but in the medium term, the supply increase may limit the price increase [16][18]. 4. Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The total weekly output has decreased, the refinery inventory has decreased, and the social inventory has increased slightly. The operating rate of refineries has decreased [20][30]. 5. LLDPE - The LLDPE market is expected to move within a range. The market price has mostly increased, but the trading volume is average. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream is in the off - season [31][32][33]. 6. PP - The spot price of PP has increased slightly, but the trading is light. The futures price has risen, and the basis has changed. The market sentiment is average, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [36][37]. 7. Caustic Soda - The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. The price in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply pressure will gradually increase in July and August, but the export can digest the new - capacity pressure. The demand is in the off - season, but there is cost support [39][40][41]. 8. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move weakly sideways. The futures price has increased slightly, and the spot price has been stable. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand situation of the living - paper market is weak [44][46][47]. 9. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price has decreased, and the basis has changed. The spot price in the Shahe area has increased significantly, and the futures - related merchants' purchases have increased [49]. 10. Methanol - Methanol is expected to move upward. The spot price index has increased. The supply has decreased in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the acceptance of high - priced goods by traditional downstream industries [54][55]. 11. Urea - Urea has entered a sideways pattern after the price dropped from a high level. The trading volume has decreased for two consecutive days, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The demand is weak, but there is some support from the "anti - involution" policy [57][59]. 12. Styrene - Styrene is a short - position allocation under strong market sentiment. The futures price has changed, and the profit margin has decreased [60]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has changed. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be stable and fluctuate [63]. 14. LPG - LPG is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price has decreased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have increased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [66][68][74]. 15. PVC - The rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain. The spot price has weakened. The supply reduction drive is insufficient in the second half of the year, and the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. The export is affected, and the domestic demand is weak [78][79][80]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The downward trend of fuel oil continues, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to move weakly sideways, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [81]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to move weakly sideways. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the October contract and hold reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. The freight rate index has declined [83].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250724
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-24 02:41