化工日报：终端集中补库，关注宏观变动-20250724

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or -0.25% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton or +0.16% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month-on-month). The news of the upcoming work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries boosted the market, but the impact on EG was limited as the proportion of backward production capacity over 20 years old was only 6.6%, and most were already shut down or operating at low loads. The cost of coal increased due to the production inspection notice [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (down 2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to rise moderately early next week [2]. - For the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - made glycol load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal production, and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery was less than expected due to the poor restart of Saudi Arabian plants. On the demand side, terminal inventory was high and the willingness to stock up was low during the off - season, with weak demand expectations. However, the actual decline in demand may be limited, and the supply - demand structure in July was still favorable, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals would increase moderately in late July [2]. - In terms of strategy, the short - term performance is strong under the concentrated release of macro - policies, and the medium - term view is neutral. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton, the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton, and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data or analysis of international spreads is provided in the summary part of the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - There is no detailed analysis of downstream sales, production, and operating rates in the summary part of the report. Inventory Data - MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (CCF data, down 2.0 tons month - on - month) and 49.4 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival last week was 5.2 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15.7 tons [2].