马棕产量恢复，油脂承压震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The recovery of palm oil production in Malaysia, the increase in the expected rapeseed production in Canada, and favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas have led to a prominent oversupply of oils and fats, causing prices to fluctuate under pressure [3] Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8994.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.76% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8074.00 yuan/ton, a change of -2.00 yuan or -0.02%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9456.00 yuan/ton, a change of -21.00 yuan or -0.22% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9100.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 106.00, a change of +72.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8220.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 146.00, a change of +12.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9560.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan or -0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 104.00, a change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Canada: The July supply - demand report of the Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) adjusted key data. The 2024/25 rapeseed production forecast was significantly increased to about 19.19 million tons from the previous 17.85 million tons, and the old - crop rapeseed export forecast was raised to 9.5 million tons. The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast was lowered by 200,000 tons to 17.8 million tons, with a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the previous year's 2.17 tons per hectare [2] - Malaysia: According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - Indonesia: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by the demand from India and China. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% increase compared to the same period last year [2]