苯乙烯日报：苯乙烯港口库存快速上升-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants in pure benzene and styrene production accounts for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ market has declined after reaching a peak, with the high futures premium starting to narrow. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory, and while the short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, the high - start CPL and styrene plants' operations are starting to decline. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic production is still at a high level, so the pure benzene processing fee continues to consolidate weakly. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB production has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS production has increased, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future production [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The pure benzene main contract basis is - 206 yuan/ton (+52), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The spread between the near - month BZ paper cargo and the distant BZ2603 futures is recommended to be reverse - arbitraged when the price is high [1][4] - Styrene: The styrene main contract basis is 53 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton). An EB2509 - 2510 inter - period reverse arbitrage is recommended [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee for pure benzene is 185 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 169 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 117.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid have all changed to varying degrees [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 57 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually shrink. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed when the price is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 17.10 tons (+0.70 tons). There is still pressure on inventory during the same period. Although downstream demand is okay in the short term, the operating rates of CPL and styrene are starting to decline [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+12,200 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+11,200 tons), which is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The domestic EB operating rate has declined slightly but is still at a relatively high level [1][3] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.18% (+2.12%) - PS: The production profit is - 76 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%) - ABS: The production profit is 225 yuan/ton (- 69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future operating rates [2][3] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1890 yuan/ton (+30), and the operating rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%) - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 81.00% (+3.00%) - Aniline: The production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74), and the operating rate is 75.86% (+4.96%) - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1491 yuan/ton (+52), and the operating rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]