EIA商业原油库存下降，油价整体持稳

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has been in a range - bound market recently, with no obvious short - term contradictions and event drivers. However, due to the extremely high crude oil inventory in China, the risk of price decline is accumulating. The market has different understandings of China's continuous increase in crude oil inventory. The core issue is that although the current monthly spread structure does not support arbitrage through oil storage, it cannot be disproven whether the inventory build - up is from SPR. The absorption capacity of SPR has a limit, and crude oil imports will eventually need to match the growth rate of crude oil processing volume and refined oil demand [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6 cents to $65.25 per barrel, a decrease of 0.09%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 8 cents to $68.51 per barrel, a decrease of 0.12%. The main contract of SC crude oil rose 0.42% to 506 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.525 million barrels, an increase of 971,000 barrels from the previous week. Among them, the light distillate inventory increased by 597,000 barrels to 7.985 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory decreased by 393,000 barrels to 2.2 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 767,000 barrels to 10.34 million barrels [1] - Representatives from Iran, Russia, and China held talks in Tehran on Tuesday to discuss the Iranian nuclear program. China advocates resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through political and diplomatic means and will continue to play a constructive role [1] - For the week ending July 18 in the United States, the EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.169 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.565 million barrels and a previous value of - 3.859 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 455,000 barrels, with a previous value of 213,000 barrels. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was - 200,000 barrels, with a previous value of - 300,000 barrels [1] Investment Logic - The oil price is in a range - bound market recently. The risk of price decline is accumulating due to high Chinese crude oil inventory. There are different views on China's inventory build - up, and the key is that SPR's absorption capacity is limited, and imports should match processing volume and demand [2] Strategy - The oil price will have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks include the relaxation of Iranian oil sanctions and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]