Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, rubber prices are mainly driven by macro - logic. With a relatively low valuation, prices have shown a continuous rebound pattern under the influence of a warm market atmosphere. The future trend depends on the change of the macro - atmosphere [4] - Fundamentally, domestic latex profit is better than that of making dry rubber from glue. Affected by rainfall in domestic main - producing areas, the increase of full - latex is slow, and raw material prices strongly support domestic rubber prices. In Thailand, heavy rainfall in the northeast has made cup - rubber prices strong, and the price gap between glue and cup - rubber has continued to narrow. Rainy weather will continue to disrupt raw material output in the short term. With the slowdown of arrivals in China in July, the pressure of supply increase is limited. The profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, reducing the import pressure in China. Downstream demand remains stable without substantial highlights. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, rubber prices are expected to continue the rebound trend, and the focus will be on the substantial improvement of the demand side in the future [5] - For BR, the butadiene rubber plants of Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin have restarted, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart this week, so the supply shows a month - on - month increase. After the previous maintenance of downstream tire factories, the operating rate has rebounded, but it is difficult to continue to rise without bright spots in terminal demand. The supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber is weak. Currently, the price of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber, and there is still support for downstream substitution demand. The future focus is on the price change of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] Summary by Directory Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,005 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,775 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with 672,600 tons in the same period of 2024. The export volume in June increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, in June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 55 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 405 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 5,652 yuan/ton (+16.01), the NR basis was 151.00 yuan/ton (+0.00); the price of full - latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,500 yuan/ton (- 50) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 66.37 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), the price of Thai cup - rubber was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,289,100 tons (- 6,053.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 928 yuan/ton (- 88) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,470 tons (+870), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,850 tons (- 800) [3]
天然橡胶社会库存环比下降
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-24 02:51