农产品日报：宏观情绪利好，生猪期价偏强运行-20250724

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6] Core Views - The pig market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the current consumption off - season expected to continue in the near future, and attention should be paid to the changes in diseases and policies [2] - In the egg market, the supply pressure has increased significantly due to the large increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens this month, while the demand improvement is limited during the consumption off - season [4][5] Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2509 contract yesterday was 14,590 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton or 1.46% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The ex - ternary pig prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 14.32 yuan/kg, 14.42 yuan/kg, and 13.50 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.07 yuan/kg, - 0.13 yuan/kg, and - 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous trading day. The spot basis was LH09 - 270, LH09 - 170, and LH09 - 1090 respectively, with changes of - 280, - 340, and - 330 from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural products wholesale prices on July 23: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.74, down 0.03 points from yesterday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.80, down 0.02 points from yesterday. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.57 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from yesterday; beef was 64.00 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.16 yuan/kg, down 0.6%; eggs were 7.43 yuan/kg, up 1.6%; and white - striped chickens were 17.47 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,637 yuan/500 kg, up 16 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: The egg spot prices in Liaoning, Shandong, and Hebei were 3.16 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin, and 3.18 yuan/jin respectively, with changes of + 0.12, + 0.10, and + 0.00 from the previous trading day. The spot basis was JD09 - 477, JD09 - 187, and JD09 - 457 respectively, with changes of + 104, + 84, and - 16 from the previous trading day [3] - Inventory: On July 23, the national production - link inventory was 0.50 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.68 days, also unchanged [3] Market Analysis Pig - The stable weight of the breeding end is due to the difficulty of weight gain after the temperature rises, not the weight reduction from slaughter. The slaughter progress of breeding enterprises has not increased this month, and the inventory remains relatively stable. The consumption end is expected to remain weak in the near future [2] Egg - The newly - opened laying hens this month are mainly from the chicks supplemented around March. The number of laying hens in stock is expected to increase significantly this month. Although the egg - laying rate has decreased due to high temperatures, the supply pressure has increased significantly. The demand improvement is limited during the consumption off - season [4][5] Strategies - Pig market strategy: Neutral [3] - Egg market strategy: Cautiously bearish [6]