新能源及有色金属日报：不锈钢盘面回落，现货成交转弱-20250724

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 123,890 yuan/ton and closed at 123,370 yuan/ton, a change of -0.06% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 133,758 lots and an open interest of 95,734 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel opened with a gap - up in the night session, quickly soared and then fell back, and consolidated at a high level. In the day session, it oscillated and declined, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, closing with a long - shadowed negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared with the previous trading day [2] - On July 22, local time, US President Trump announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines. He also said he "might visit China in the near future". Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 - 30 [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Nickel's morning quotation was raised by about 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream brand quotations in the market also increased accordingly. The premium of Jinchuan's ex - factory price over Shanghai Nickel declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the trading was average. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel changed from 0 to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed from 50 to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [2] - The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,971 (- 122.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 205,872 (- 2,220) tons [2] Group 2: Nickel Strategy - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but the nickel price has fallen for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3] - For nickel trading strategies, it is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,890 yuan/ton and closed at 12,900 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 226,003 lots and an open interest of 122,384 lots [3] - The main contract of stainless steel quickly pulled up in the night session and then oscillated horizontally. In the day session, it oscillated and declined, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, closing with a long - shadowed negative line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [3] - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, and a mine has offered a price of FOB31 for 1.3% grade, which has declined month - on - month. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in July declined by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat month - on - month. There are obvious spreads in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 is still the mainstream premium [3] - Recently, a nickel - iron plant in Indonesia had concentrated transactions at 920 - 922 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron price is running steadily and slightly stronger [3] - In the spot market, the price oscillated and declined today, and the afternoon trading of spot goods weakened significantly. The daily trading was average, worse than the previous two days. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is also 12,900 yuan/ton. The SMM data shows that the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, but the stainless steel price has fallen for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4] - For stainless steel trading strategies, it is neutral for single - side trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]