基本面驱动不足，PVC反弹受限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC fundamentals are difficult to drive the market upward continuously. After the weakening of macro - sentiment, the PVC rebound is limited. The supply side has high upstream开工 and new capacity, while the demand side has weak domestic demand and neutral exports, and the social inventory is accumulating [3]. - The market sentiment of caustic soda has been significantly boosted, and the caustic soda futures have been running strongly recently. The supply side has new production expectations, and the demand side has rigid support from the alumina industry, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The inventory pressure is expected to increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5151 yuan/ton (- 109), the East China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+ 99), and the South China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (+ 29) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 5050 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 5020 yuan/ton (- 80) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 535 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (- 25), the calcium carbide profit is 87 yuan/ton (- 25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 315 yuan/ton (+ 130), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 595 yuan/ton (+ 26), and the PVC export profit is - 16.4 US dollars/ton (- 2.6) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC factory inventory is 36.8 tons (- 1.4), the PVC social inventory is 41.1 tons (+ 1.8), the PVC calcium carbide method开工 rate is 77.52% (+ 0.59%), the PVC ethylene method开工 rate is 68.31% (- 1.92%), and the PVC开工 rate is 74.97% (- 0.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+ 0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2644 yuan/ton (- 14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 50 yuan/ton (+ 14) [1]. - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 459.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 592.53 yuan/ton (+ 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1719.84 yuan/ton (+ 271.52) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.39 tons (+ 0.96), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (+ 0.04), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 82.60% (+ 2.20%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 83.61% (+ 0.33%), the dyeing and printing开工 rate in East China is 58.89% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 84.55% (+ 6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Policy may lead to expectations of eliminating old - fashioned PVC production capacity, but the fundamentals are difficult to drive the market upward. The supply side has high开工 and new capacity, the demand side has weak domestic demand and neutral exports, and the social inventory is accumulating [3]. Caustic Soda - The market sentiment has been boosted by the possible elimination of old - fashioned caustic soda production capacity. The supply side has new production expectations, the demand side has rigid support from the alumina industry, but the non - aluminum demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral. The market rebound may be limited due to the cooling of macro - sentiment and insufficient fundamental drivers [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously go long for hedging. The cost support of caustic soda is strengthened, and the caustic soda market is expected to continue to be strong [5].