养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Grains and Oils: The overall situation of grains and oils is complex. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by factors such as domestic auctions and new - season supply. The price of peanuts is influenced by import volume, weather, and planting area. The supply - demand relationship of various oils (soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil) is also different, with different price trends and trading strategies [3][4][5]. - Feed: The feed market is also in a state of change. The price of corn is affected by factors such as import volume and regional supply, and the price of soybean meal is related to the price of CBOT soybeans and the progress of purchasing [6][7]. - Livestock and Poultry: The livestock and poultry market is sensitive to policies. The prices of pigs and eggs are affected by factors such as market sentiment, consumption seasonality, and production costs [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Market Judgment - Oilseeds: For soybeans (both domestic and imported), the supply is expected to increase, and the prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For peanuts, the new - season production is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be range - bound. For oils, the fundamentals of soybean oil are weak, while palm oil has potential positive factors [12]. - Proteins: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rise, mainly due to factors such as the reduction of soybean purchases in the fourth quarter [12]. - Energy and By - products: The prices of corn and corn starch are expected to be range - bound, and short - selling orders are recommended to be reduced at low prices [12]. - Livestock and Poultry: The price of pigs is expected to rebound, and the price of eggs is expected to bottom out. Appropriate trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [12]. - Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - period Arbitrage: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see. However, for soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low prices is recommended [14]. - Inter - commodity Arbitrage: Different trading strategies are recommended for different combinations of varieties, such as short - selling operations for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - selling operations for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14]. - Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the current spot prices, price changes, and basis data of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures trading [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: The table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [17][18]. - Weekly Data: It includes the inventory, operating rates of oil plants, and other data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and peanuts, which reflect the current supply and demand situation of the industry [19]. - Feed - Daily Data: The import costs of corn from different countries and different months are provided [19]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, and operating rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - Livestock and Poultry - Daily Data: The daily price data of pigs and eggs in different regions are provided, including spot prices, price changes, and other information [21][22]. - Weekly Data: The weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, production rates, and inventory, are presented [23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock and Poultry: The charts show the price trends of pigs and eggs, including futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as breeding costs and profits [27][28][31]. - Oils and Oilseeds - Palm Oil: It includes the production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import and domestic inventory data of palm oil [35][37][40]. - Soybean Oil: The charts show the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and other data in the United States, as well as the domestic soybean oil plant operating rates and inventory [46][47][48]. - Peanuts: It includes the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic markets, as well as the peanut processing profit and inventory data [50][51]. - Feed - Corn: The charts show the inventory, sales progress, import volume, and consumption data of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn alcohol enterprises [54][55][56]. - Corn Starch: It includes the operating rates, inventory, and processing profit data of corn starch enterprises [56][58]. - Rapeseed: The charts show the spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [58][61][62]. - Soybean Meal: It includes the weather conditions in the United States, the growth progress of soybeans, and the inventory data of soybeans and soybean meal [65][67][69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The historical volatility data of various futures varieties and the trading volume and open interest data of corn options are provided, which can be used as a reference for options trading [71][73][78]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The warehouse receipt data of various futures varieties are provided, which can reflect the market supply and demand situation to a certain extent [75][77][80].