碳酸锂日评：买卖双方分歧扩大-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 23, the main contract of new lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The spot market was in negotiation. The basis changed from a discount to a premium. The price of spodumene concentrate and mica increased on the cost side. Lithium carbonate production rose last week on the supply side. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased in June, the production schedule of ternary materials increased, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production schedule of energy storage batteries increased in June. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, social inventory decreased slightly, smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and others accumulated inventory. The "anti - involution" sentiment continued, and there was a large divergence between buyers and sellers in the spot market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or buy straddle options [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - Closing Prices: On July 23, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate were 69,320 yuan/ton, 69,380 yuan/ton, 68,620 yuan/ton, and 68,620 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 3,480 yuan/ton, 3,500 yuan/ton, 3,180 yuan/ton, and 3,180 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 1,334,159 lots (+215,933), and the position was 362,054 lots (-49,584) [2]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts inventory was 10,754 tons (+665) [2]. - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 60 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 760 yuan/ton (-320), and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [2]. - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 1,070 yuan/ton (+4,850) [2]. Raw Material Prices - Lithium Ore: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 750 US dollars/ton (+8), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,040 yuan/ton (+10), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,605 yuan/ton (+15) [2]. Downstream Product Prices - Lithium Compounds: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,450 yuan/ton (+1,350), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 yuan/ton (+1,350), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 59,820 - 64,970 yuan/ton (+1,100), and the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,000 yuan/ton (+250) [2]. - Cathode Materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide showed different degrees of change, with some remaining unchanged [2]. - Anode Materials and Electrolytes: The prices of some anode materials and electrolytes remained unchanged [2]. - Cobalt - Related Products: The average price of electrolytic cobalt was 245,000 yuan/ton (+500), the average price of cobalt sulfate was 50,975 yuan/ton (+25), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide was 208,650 yuan/ton (0) [2]. Inventory Data - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,620 tons (+1,827), with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and others accumulating inventory [2]. Market News - He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. Zheng Shanjie proposed to promote the rectification of involution - style competition and expand industrial chain and supply chain cooperation. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit ranges of relevant contracts for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures [2].