ONE线下价格下修至3108美元/FEU，现货价格顶部大概率已现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].