铝产业链日评：国内铝土矿7月供需预期偏松国内电解铝社会库存量环比增加-20250724

Report Title - The title of the report is "Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250724: Domestic Bauxite Supply and Demand Expected to Be Loose in July, Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Social Inventory Increases Month-on-Month" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bauxite supply and demand in July are expected to be loose, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased month-on-month [1] - For different aluminum products, due to various factors such as cost changes, policy expectations, and inventory levels, the price increase space may be limited, and investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Market Data - Futures and Spot Prices: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai aluminum futures was 20,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous day; the SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The national alumina average price was 3,239.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41 yuan [2] - Price Spreads: The Shanghai aluminum basis was 60 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the spread between Shanghai aluminum near - month and Shanghai aluminum continuous - one was 25 yuan, unchanged; the spread between Shanghai aluminum continuous - one and Shanghai aluminum continuous - two was 45 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum futures was 57,723 tons, a decrease of 3,161 tons; the inventory of LME 3 - month aluminum futures (registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts) was N/A on July 23, 2025, and it was 124,825 tons on July 22 [2] Industry News and Company Plans - Ouxiang Alloy: Plans to raise no more than 600 million yuan through private placement to promote its recycled deformed lead - alloy project, with funds invested in Anhui Yubo's annual 630,000 - ton lead - ball - protected lead - alloy flat ingot project and annual 600,000 - ton green - cycle high - performance aluminum plate strip project [3] - Tajikistan: Aims to achieve an average annual growth rate of 20% in primary aluminum output in the next three years, and its aluminum output in 2025 is expected to reach the level of 101,000 tons in 2019 [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Alumina: Domestic bauxite production (import) proportion increases, and supply and demand are expected to be loose. Chinese alumina production in July may increase month - on - month due to project construction. Overseas alumina production in July may also increase month - on - month. The import window is closed, and domestic port alumina inventory has decreased [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Chinese electrolytic aluminum production in July - August may increase month - on - month due to project start - up and production resumption. Domestic electrolytic aluminum import volume may increase month - on - month, but the import window closure may limit imports. Social inventory has increased, and the downstream processing enterprise capacity utilization rate has changed [3] - Aluminum Alloy: Chinese scrap aluminum production (import) may increase month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate remains flat, while the recycled aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate has decreased [3] Trading Strategies - Alumina: Suggest investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 3,800 - 4,200 yuan/ton [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Advise investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [3] - Aluminum Alloy: Recommend investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 19,700 - 20,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]