Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 24, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong, weak, or wide - range oscillation state, and gives corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - In the medium - term, the A - share market's pricing effectiveness is gradually emerging, and the optimistic market trend is expected to continue [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The "zero - tariff" commodity tax item ratio in Hainan Free Trade Port will increase from 21% to 74% after the full - island customs closure on December 18, 2025. China will issue elderly care service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people, starting pilot programs in some regions in July [8]. - The US and Japan reached a tariff agreement, with the US reducing the "reciprocal tariff" on Japan from 25% to 15%, and Japan increasing US rice imports. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and buy $80 billion worth of US goods. Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% tariffs on most other countries [9]. - The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement to set a 15% tariff rate on most products. The Trump administration released the "AI Action Plan", and Trump criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a 3 - percentage - point interest rate cut [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit range, trading margin standard, trading fee standard, and trading limit of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts. Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a market risk warning for coking coal [11]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and London base metals mostly rose at the close. Market participants are concerned about policy and supply - demand changes [12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On July 23, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends. The A - share market had a strong pattern, with multiple major market indexes hitting new highs during the session. The Hong Kong stock market also rose. In the future, stock index futures are expected to be in a strong oscillation state [12][16]. - On July 24, 2025, IF2509 has resistance at 4147 and 4168 points and support at 4090 and 4066 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2815 and 2830 points and support at 2797 and 2785 points; IC2509 has resistance at 6165 and 6219 points and support at 6100 and 6080 points; IM2509 has resistance at 6561 and 6600 points and support at 6500 and 6463 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 23, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts were in a weak oscillation state. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tender [34]. - On July 24, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond futures contract T2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 108.32 and 108.18 yuan and resistance at 108.62 and 108.71 yuan; the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 is also likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 118.6 and 118.2 yuan and resistance at 119.5 and 119.8 yuan [2][36]. Precious Metal Futures - On July 23, 2025, the gold and silver futures contracts showed upward trends. In July 2025, the gold futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, and the silver futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation [40][48]. - On July 24, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 781.8 and 776.8 yuan/gram and resistance at 794.9 and 798.8 yuan/gram; the silver futures contract AG2510 is also likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 9393 and 9343 yuan/kg and resistance at 9526 and 9550 yuan/kg [2][3]. Base Metal Futures - On July 23, 2025, copper, aluminum oxide, tin, industrial silicon, and other base metal futures contracts had different trends. In July 2025, the copper futures continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, the aluminum oxide futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation, and the tin futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation [50][55][56]. - On July 24, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, the aluminum oxide futures contract AO2509 is likely to be in a wide - range oscillation, and the tin futures contract SN2508 is likely to be in a strong oscillation [2][3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On July 23, 2025, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and other energy and chemical futures contracts had different trends. In July 2025, the crude oil futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation [85][91]. - On July 24, 2025, the coking coal futures contract JM2509 is likely to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, the glass futures contract FG509 is likely to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, the soda ash futures contract SA509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, the PTA futures contract TA509 is likely to be in an oscillation adjustment, the PVC futures contract V2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, and the methanol futures contract MA509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation [2][3][6]. Agricultural Product Futures - On July 23, 2025, soybean meal and palm oil futures contracts showed upward trends. In July 2025, the iron ore futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation, and the rebar futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation [70][78][101]. - On July 24, 2025, the soybean meal futures contract M2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the palm oil futures contract P2509 is likely to be in a wide - range oscillation, the rebar futures contract RB2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, and the iron ore futures contract I2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation [2][3][6].
股指期货将偏强震荡，黄金、白银、螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡，焦煤期货将偏强宽幅震荡，多晶硅期货将宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-24 03:22