Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for shipping derivatives is currently in a state of oscillation. It is expected that the freight rates for European routes will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of rate hikes in August, and even if there are hikes, the success rate will be low. Freight rates are about to enter a rounded - top trend, and an accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [5]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1304, 2142, 1301, 3612, 2079, 2400, and 2528 respectively. Their respective previous values were 1733, 1314, 2194, 1266, 4172, 2099, 2421, and 2667, with corresponding changes of - 4.98%, - 0.78%, - 2.37%, 2.76%, - 13.42%, - 0.95%, - 0.87%, and - 5.21% [3]. - Contract Freight Index: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1468.8, 2239.7, 1537.0, 1701.8, 1477.3, and 1324.0 respectively. Their previous values were 1460.0, 2249.7, 1548.0, 1708.7, 1460.5, and 1319.8, with changes of 0.60%, - 0.44%, - 0.71%, - 0.40%, 1.15%, and 0.32% [3]. - Contract Positions: The current positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 807, 11039, 50131, 8446, 4094, and 5800 respectively. Their previous positions were 779, 12393, 51734, 8533, 3982, and 5538, with changes of 28, - 1354, - 1603, - 87, 112, and 262 [3]. - Monthly Spread: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are 702.7, - 164.8, and 377.8 respectively. Their previous values were 701.7, - 160.7, and 388.9, with changes of 1.0, - 4.1, and - 11.1 [3]. 3.2 Market News - US President Trump said he would be willing to abandon tariff provisions if he could persuade major countries to open their markets to the US; US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that most countries will face a rebound in tariff levels to the retaliatory rates set on April 2 by the Trump administration on August 1; he will discuss with Chinese officials in Stockholm whether to further postpone the August 12 tariff deadline for China; Indonesia will impose a 19% reciprocal tariff on US goods and cancel tariff barriers on over 99% of US exports; Trump announced a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japan [4]. 3.3 Market Analysis - The 08 - contract rallied on Friday as Maersk announced a PSS increase of 500 for long - term contracts in August and ONE raised its online quote by 300, leading the market to pre - trade the August price increase; the 10 - contract declined on Monday as ONE's offline August price remained the same as in late July and CMA cut prices at the end of July; the market declined on Tuesday afternoon as WSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current selling price, seen as a signal of a peak in freight rates [5].
航运衍生品数据日报-20250724
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-24 04:41