从产能周期视角看“反内卷”

Core Insights - The report highlights that most primary industries in the A-share market are experiencing intense competition, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector compared to upstream resource products [1] - It notes that the willingness to expand production has dropped to a low point across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1] - The report emphasizes different signals for capacity clearance in traditional versus emerging industries, focusing on improving expansion capabilities for traditional sectors and low expansion willingness for emerging sectors [1] Existing Capacity Utilization Levels - The methodology for measuring industry capacity utilization is based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, assessing the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor conditions [8] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historical low levels of capacity utilization, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [8][9] Potential Incremental Capacity Levels - The report evaluates potential new capacity based on two dimensions: willingness to expand and capacity to expand. The willingness is measured by the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation, indicating active investment in expansion [9] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historical low levels of expansion willingness, with only utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals showing relatively strong willingness [9] - The capacity to expand is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow conditions, with most primary industries at historical mid-high levels of expansion capacity [9] Historical Capacity Clearance Patterns - Emerging industries signal clearance through cash capability and low expansion willingness. The report references the solar industry's overcapacity from 2011 to 2015, where capacity utilization rapidly declined and remained low until cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to zero [10][12] - Traditional industries signal clearance through improvements in cash capability. The steel and coal industries experienced a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, with capacity utilization showing a "V" shape trajectory [12] Current Capacity Clearance Trajectories - In the current cycle, the lithium battery and solar sectors have reached low capacity utilization levels, with both showing expansion willingness near the 0% percentile over the past decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels [25] - Traditional resource sectors are not facing severe overcapacity issues as seen in previous cycles, with steel and coal industries nearing 2019 low points in capacity utilization, although signs of cash capability improvement are emerging in basic chemicals and steel [25]