集运日报：班轮公司最新8月报价涨跌互现盘面继续回撤近月保持基差修复今日若回调可考虑加仓设置好止损-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, trading is highly challenging. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position in the 2510 contract below 1300 and consider taking profits if the market continues to decline. A light short position in the EC2512 contract is also suggested. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3]. - Due to the volatile international situation, the arbitrage strategy is mainly based on positive spreads, but it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [3]. 3. Key Points from Relevant Contents Shipping Market Conditions - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% from the previous period [1]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% from the previous period [1]. - The latest quotes from liner companies for August show a mixed trend, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood regarding future freight rates. The 2510 contract has seen a reduction in positions and a downward trend in a wide - range volatile market [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate adjustments, and the spot market has tested the waters with a slight price increase [2]. - In June, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 50, and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1]. - On July 22, the Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a missile at Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport. On July 21, the Israeli military attacked Houthi military facilities in the port of Hodeidah, and the Houthi rebels responded with drone attacks [4]. - On July 23, it was reported that high - level officials from the US, Israel, and Syria were expected to hold talks on July 24 to discuss security arrangements in southern Syria [4]. Trading Data - On July 23, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 2.72, down 2.72% with a trading volume of 59,500 lots and an open interest of 50,100 lots, a decrease of 1603 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin to 28%, and the daily opening limit to 100 lots [3].