EIA周度报告点评-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data is bullish due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, casting doubt on the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at its peak within the year [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 418.993 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Cushing inventories increased by 455,000 barrels; strategic reserve inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels; distillate inventories increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day; processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3] - US total crude oil chain inventories decreased by 5.353 million barrels; the four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for crude oil increased by 314,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 180,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillate decreased by 112,750 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased slightly [3] Report Review - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories declined more than expected. US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year. Refinery operating rates remained high, increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%. The continuous rebound of US weekly crude oil exports also contributed to the decline in inventories [4] - Although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates, which the market is more concerned about, declined. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the levels of the 2020 COVID - 19 year [6] - After the release of this week's report, oil prices had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7]