日度策略参考-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: - Stocks: Bullish [1] - Bonds: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, cautious in the medium - term [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Aluminum: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Alumina: Neutral (Wide - range oscillating) [1] - Zinc: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Bullish in the short - term, cautious in the long - term [1] - Stainless Steel: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Tin: Volatile in the short - term [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Hydroxide: Bullish [1] - Ferrous Metals: - Rebar: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Hot - rolled Coil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Iron Ore: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Silicomanganese: Bullish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Coke: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Agricultural Products: - Palm Oil: Bullish, with risks [1] - Methanol: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Cotton: Bullish in the short - term, limited upside for 01 contract [1] - White Sugar: Bullish, limited upside [1] - Corn: Bearish for CO1, limited upside for C09 [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish for M01 on pullbacks, limited upside for M09 [1] - Pulp: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Logs: Bullish in the short - term, not advisable to chase [1] - Live Pigs: Neutral (Stable) [1] - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Fuel Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Natural Rubber: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - BR Rubber: Neutral (Oscillating with support) [1] - PTA: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bullish [1] - Urea: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - PF: Neutral (Oscillating downward) [1] - DO: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - PVC: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Caustic Soda: Bullish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - Shipping: Bearish [2] 2. Core Views - In the short term, stock indices are expected to be strong due to the "asset shortage" and "national team" support, as well as the boost from "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations. Bond futures are favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts their upside. Gold and silver are expected to be strong in the short term due to market uncertainties [1]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, "anti - involution" policies and other factors drive price movements. For example, zinc and stainless steel prices are rising, while nickel is strong in the short term but faces long - term over - supply pressure [1]. - In the ferrous metals sector, supply - side reforms drive the prices of many products such as silicomanganese, ferrosilicon, glass, and soda ash to be strong [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends. For example, corn has different strategies for different contracts, and soybean meal has different outlooks for M09 and M01 [1]. - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors affect product prices. For example, styrene is bullish due to factors such as increased device load, while LPG is bearish due to high inventory and seasonal factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Recently, stock indices have shown obvious insensitivity to negative news, with strong trading volume and market sentiment. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support increase the willingness to allocate equity assets, and "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations boost market sentiment. In the short term, stock indices are expected to be strong [1]. - Bond Futures: The "asset shortage" and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts their upside [1]. - Gold and Silver: Market uncertainties remain, so the price of gold is expected to be strong and oscillating in the short term. Silver shows short - term resilience, but caution is needed in the medium term [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The "anti - involution" theme in China is volatile, and downstream demand is fair, so the copper price is oscillating upward [1]. - Aluminum: The "anti - involution" theme in China is emerging, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the aluminum price may oscillate [1]. - Alumina: Alumina profits are expanding, with both supply and inventory increasing, and the price is oscillating widely [1]. - Zinc: The "anti - involution" and capacity - reduction themes in China are emerging, infrastructure demand is boosted, and the risk of LME zinc squeeze is increasing, so the zinc price is rising. Attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipts [1]. - Nickel: The "anti - involution" policy in China is emerging, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Indonesia's RKAB approval quota in the first half of the year reached 364 million wet tons, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has slightly declined. In the short term, the nickel price is mainly driven by the macro - situation and is oscillating upward. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment calms down. In the long term, the over - supply of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: The "anti - involution" policy in China is emerging, and the macro - sentiment is warming up, which boosts the steel price. The price of raw material ferronickel is weak, the social inventory of stainless steel is slightly decreasing, and after profit recovery, steel mills' production cuts may be less than expected. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills. The stainless steel futures are oscillating upward. It is recommended to wait and see and look for positive arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot, and pay attention to raw material changes and steel mills' production schedules [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and the prices are oscillating [1]. - Iron Ore: Although the commodity sentiment is positive, the fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price is oscillating [1]. - Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Glass, and Soda Ash: Supply - side reforms are restarted, and the prices are mainly strong [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The "anti - involution" theme is mentioned in high - level meetings. Although it cannot be compared with the 2015 supply - side reform bull market, it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading aspect. Short - selling orders should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. For coke, the key is to seize the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is an expectation of international demand growth, and the reference price in Malaysia is raised. The risk lies in the negative impact of increased production in the producing areas and weak exports [1]. - Cotton: Cotton has increased positions and prices in the short term, mainly driven by the logic of squeezing the 01 contract in the near - month. The upside of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - White Sugar: White sugar is running strongly, with the bottom - divergence rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to the oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - Corn: The supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, which supports the market, but the low price difference between wheat and corn squeezes the demand for corn. Under the pressure of high warehouse receipts, the rebound space of C09 is expected to be limited. The planting cost of new - season corn is reduced, and the production situation is good. It is recommended to short CO1 at high prices [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal is in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and the basis is expected to continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the spot lacks the conditions for a sharp rise. Under the low basis, the upside of M09 is expected to be limited. Supported by the import cost, it is recommended to wait for pullbacks to buy M01 [1]. - Pulp and Logs: Pulp has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. Currently, the basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. In the short term, the main trading logic of logs may shift to the "strong expectation" of the 09 contract. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - Live Pigs: With the continuous restoration of live - pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The market expects sufficient inventory, and the futures are at a large discount to the spot. In the short term, the spot is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the market has returned to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term peak - season consumption in Europe and the United States provides support. The prices are oscillating [1]. - Asphalt: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil price. Cost disturbances and demand recovery balance each other, and the price fluctuation is limited [1]. - Natural Rubber and BR Rubber: For natural rubber, there are short - term rainfall disturbances in the producing areas, slow inventory reduction, and positive macro - sentiment in the market. For BR rubber, the cost of butadiene provides support, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are stable, demand is weakening, the spot price is oscillating, and there will be some device maintenance of butadiene in the future with limited cargo supply, so the BR futures are expected to consolidate in stages and then have price support [1]. - PTA: PTA supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The downstream load of polyester remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle chips and short - fibers will enter the maintenance cycle. PTA ports have slightly reduced inventory, and the replenishment willingness of polyester is not high [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The coal price has risen slightly, the commodity sentiment is generally positive, overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance has been postponed, the supply has shrunk, and the market expects less arrival of goods in the future [1]. - Short - fiber: The registration volume of short - fiber warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factories' maintenance is increasing. Under the high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related [1]. - Styrene: The pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load of styrene has increased, the basis of styrene has significantly weakened, and there are many old - capacity issues in the pure - benzene and styrene industries [1]. - Urea: There is an expectation of supply contraction, and domestic demand has entered the off - season [1]. - PF: The macro - sentiment has faded, and it has returned to the fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price is oscillating downward [1]. - DO: The downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price is oscillating upward [1]. - PVC: The prices of coking coal and other products have risen, the market sentiment is good, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, and the price is oscillating upward [1]. - Caustic Soda: Maintenance is approaching the end, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the premium of caustic soda delivery substitutes has increased, there are many coal policies, and the sentiment is positive [2]. - LPG: The support from crude oil is insufficient, the international fundamentals are loose, the port propane inventory is high, the CP - FEI spread has narrowed, the LPG combustion demand is in the seasonal off - season, the chemical demand is average, the spread between industrial and civil uses has narrowed, and the domestic LPG price is running weakly [2]. - Shipping: The signal of freight rate peaking is emerging, European ports are still congested, and there will be many scheduled ships in August [2].