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地方债机构行为及策略展望
Minsheng Securities·2025-07-24 05:50

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in Q2 2025, local government bonds outperformed similar-term national bonds, with a notable compression in yield spreads, particularly for 7Y and 10Y bonds, which saw a reduction of 12 basis points [1][3][8] - Institutional participation in local bond investments was strong, with insurance companies net buying 473 billion yuan in the secondary market, while the total scale of local bonds held by insurance companies reached 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in net purchases due to the maturity of existing bonds [1][8][9] - Funds shifted from minimal participation in Q1 to net buying 45.4 billion yuan in Q2, focusing on long-duration bonds, particularly in the 20-30Y and 10-15Y ranges, indicating a preference for longer maturities [2][3][9] Group 2 - The report highlights that in Q2 2025, funds reduced their holdings in bonds with maturities of 10Y and below by 4.9 billion yuan while increasing their holdings in bonds with maturities above 10Y by 3.3 billion yuan, with a particular emphasis on 10-15Y bonds [2][23][27] - The distribution of local bonds held by funds shows that bonds with maturities of 3Y and below constituted approximately 61% of their holdings, while the difference between general bonds and special bonds held by funds was minimal, with proportions of 52% and 48% respectively [2][23][27] - The report notes a preference for bonds from regions like Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang, which accounted for 60% of total holdings, while funds increased their positions in bonds from regions like Guangxi and Sichuan, indicating a shift in regional preferences [2][27][33] Group 3 - The future strategy outlook suggests that the domestic market faces pressure from insufficient effective demand, and while "anti-involution" policies may optimize capacity, economic recovery will require improved demand [3][39][44] - The report identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in the issuance of 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y local bonds, with current spreads compressing to within 10 basis points, indicating a favorable environment for investment [3][39][44] - It is noted that the valuation of 30Y local bonds remains attractive, with a yield of 2.06% and a spread of 13 basis points over national bonds, suggesting continued investment value in these securities [3][39][44]