固收专题：质押券解冻后

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The "Decision of the People's Bank of China on Amending and Repealing Certain Rules (Draft for Comment)" may lead to the transformation of bond repurchase in the inter - bank market from pledged repurchase to outright repurchase in the future, with outright repurchase potentially becoming the core of China's bond repurchase. Although there are currently few outright repurchase transactions, it has supporting facilities, experience, and is conducive to international integration [1][11]. - In the short term, the impact on the bond market may be neutral. Unfreezing pledged bonds can increase asset supply, enhance liquidity, and provide a short - selling channel for investors, but risk prevention is also necessary [3][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Understanding "Canceling the Freeze on Pledged Bonds for Bond Repurchase" - On July 18, 2025, the central bank proposed canceling the freeze on pledged bonds for bond repurchase, which is a modification of Article 31 of the "Administrative Measures for Bond Registration, Custody, and Settlement in the Inter - bank Bond Market" [8]. - As of the end of June 2025, the balance of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank bond market was 24.30 trillion yuan, while the balance of outright repurchase was 203.4 billion yuan, less than 1% of the pledged repurchase balance. Pledged repurchase only has a financing function, and the ownership of pledged bonds does not transfer, reducing their liquidity and being unfavorable to the rights and interests of the fund lender in case of default or rapid interest rate increases. Outright repurchase has both financing and short - selling functions, and the fund lender has greater operational flexibility [8][11]. 3.2 Outright Repurchase Has Supporting Facilities and Experience - In terms of facilities, the term of outright repurchase has been extended to 365 days, the accounting treatment has been clarified, and the function of quoting and trading multiple bonds in a single outright repurchase has been launched [2][12]. - In terms of experience, the central bank launched an open - market outright reverse repurchase operation tool in October 2024, and by June 2025, the balance reached 4.60 trillion yuan, replacing part of the MLF [2][12]. - Switching to outright repurchase is conducive to international integration. The main forms of international bond market repurchase are classic repurchase and buy/sell - back transactions, where bond ownership transfers. China's offshore repurchase business has started to revitalize pledged bonds [2][16]. 3.3 Future Outlook - In the short term, the impact on the bond market may be neutral. Although the central bank's statement has raised market expectations for bond trading, currently, the net sale of national bonds does not match the central bank's policy tone [3][18]. - Canceling the freeze on pledged bonds can increase asset supply, enhance liquidity, relieve institutional liability - side pressure, and provide a short - selling channel for investors, but it is necessary to prevent a sharp increase in the leverage ratio of the bond market [3][18]. - If the switch from pledged repurchase to outright repurchase occurs, the scale of pledged bonds involved is estimated to be 14.76 trillion yuan based on the central bank's balance sheet and 8.22 trillion yuan based on the monthly trading volume of pledged repurchase in June 2025, assuming a 90% pledge ratio [3][19].