农产品日报（2025年7月24日）-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to show a volatile trend. The 9 - month contract has rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region has increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. However, the futures price is facing technical resistance and may show a short - term weakening trend [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish. Although the demand growth rate is expected to slow down, the import cost is rising, and the spread trading strategy of 91 and 15 is recommended [1]. - The price of palm oil is expected to be bullish. Due to short - covering and the rise of the surrounding market, the inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased steadily. A long - only strategy and 91 spread trading are recommended [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to be volatile. Although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues such as high inventory and cold - stored eggs may limit the increase [1][2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile. Although the market is currently supported by optimistic sentiment, the problem of over - capacity still exists [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Corn: On Wednesday, the weighted corn contract continued to reduce positions and adjust. The 9 - month contract rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region increased. The price in the华北 region was stable, and the price in the sales area rebounded slightly. Technically, the futures price faced resistance at the 2320 - 2330 price range and showed a short - term weakening trend [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestically, the price of soybean meal rose, driven by the increase in import cost. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down due to policy measures [1]. - Palm Oil: On Wednesday, the BMD palm oil futures price closed higher. In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased, and the export volume increased significantly. Domestically, the palm oil price led the rise, and the inventory increased steadily [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2509 closed up 0.44%. The spot price increased slightly. In the future, although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues may limit the increase [1][2]. - Live Pigs: On Wednesday, the main live pig contract 2509 closed up 1.46%. The spot price decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the problem of over - capacity still exists, but short - term rebound is possible [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to adjust the pig production capacity and promote the substitution of soybean meal [3]. - Indonesia expects an increase in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 [3]. - In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly [3]. - Canada has adjusted its rapeseed production forecast. The 2024/25 production is raised, while the 2025/26 production is lowered [4]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides information on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [6][8][9][12]. - Contract Basis: The report provides information on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [14][18][24][26].