黑色商品日报-20250724

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish operation [1] - Iron Ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating upward [1] - Coke: Oscillating upward [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures closed lower, with spot prices down and trading volume dropping. Rebar production declined slightly, inventory decreased again, and apparent demand rebounded. Policy news boosted market sentiment, but actual supply and demand weakened. The short-term rebar futures are expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract decreased. Australian shipments fell, Brazilian shipments rose, and non-mainstream country shipments increased significantly. Iron ore inventory at 47 ports continued to decline. High hot metal production supported prices. Affected by macro sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures rose. Spot prices increased, and market trading was active. A notice on promoting stable coal supply was confirmed. High blast furnace utilization in steel mills improved coke demand, and the second round of coke price increases was implemented. Coking coal is expected to oscillate upward in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures rose. After two rounds of price increases, coke producers' profits improved, but rising coking coal costs led to a decline in profits, and some producers continued to limit production. Steel mills' high utilization rate increased coke consumption, and their restocking willingness was strong. Coke is expected to oscillate upward in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures fluctuated widely. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and the black sector showed mixed performance. Supply is expected to gradually increase, while demand hit a five-year low. Cost support strengthened. The focus is on macro and policy implementation, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated higher. The black sector showed some divergence, and the expected adjustment of electricity prices in major production areas drove up prices. Supply is expected to increase, while demand hit a multi-year low. The main driving force of the fundamentals lies in the expected change in costs. The short-term increase is expected to gradually slow down [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For different varieties, the contract spreads between different months showed various changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being -50.0 with a 10.0 increase [4]. - Basis: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 106.0 with a 43.0 increase [4]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different varieties and in different regions had different changes, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar increasing by 10.0 to 3380.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The report also provided data on profits and spreads, such as the rebar's futures profit being 37.4 with a -19.9 decrease [4]. Group 4: Summary of Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presented the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][9] - Main Contract Basis: It showed the basis of main contracts of different commodities over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The spreads between different contracts of each commodity were presented, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [25] - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: The report included spreads between different commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and the ratio between rebar and iron ore [40] - Rebar Profits: Data on rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit were shown [45] Group 5: Introduction of the Black Research Team - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [52][53]