碳酸锂日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日）-20250724

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 23, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.07% to 69,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 1,350 yuan/ton to 70,450 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 1,350 yuan/ton to 68,800 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 59,820 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 665 tons to 10,754 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the production in July is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 302 tons to 19,115 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 330 tons to 9,324 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 25 tons to 5,100 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 17 tons to 3,282 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 70 tons to 1,409 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 506 tons to 41,271 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,880 tons to 43,310 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 559 tons to 58,039 tons [3]. - Yesterday, the positions decreased and the lithium price fell. In the market, the news continued to ferment. The warehouse receipts increased slightly for two consecutive days, but the total inventory level was still low, and the lithium ore price was running strongly. In the short term, the price may still fluctuate strongly. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt inventory and the situation of mines in Jiangxi [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on July 23 and 22, 2025, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate, precursors, cathode materials, cells, and batteries. For example, the closing price of the main futures contract dropped from 72,880 yuan/ton on July 22 to 69,380 yuan/ton on July 23, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose from 50,750 yuan/ton to 51,000 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. 2.3 Spreads - Charts display the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. 2.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate (power - type, medium - high - end energy storage, low - end energy storage), lithium manganate (power - type, capacity - type), and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. 2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. 2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [34][36]. 2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38][39].