有色商品日报（2025年7月24日）-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.36% to $9,933.5/ton, while SHFE copper fell 0.16% to 79,680 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still slightly in the red. With the approaching August tariff deadline, the EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump's claim of a US - Japan agreement has led to market optimism. The third - round China - US consultations are set to take place in Sweden next week. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,567 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 9,972 tons. Affected by the off - season, consumption is weak, but some enterprises are stocking up in advance due to concerns about price increases. The Inner Mongolia flotation incident may cause safety - related production cuts, intensifying the shortage of concentrates. With the approaching August 1st, although there are many positive factors, uncertainties also exist, so weekly market trends should be viewed with caution. The domestic anti - involution impact on the market has eased, and its impact on copper is relatively weak but still affects market sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weak and volatile trend. Alumina's AO2509 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, with an increase in open interest. Shanghai aluminum's AL2509 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, also with an increase in open interest. The aluminum alloy's AD2511 closed at 20,140 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with a decrease in open interest. The SMM alumina price rebounded, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots decreased. The processing fees of aluminum rods and some aluminum products changed. Due to the maintenance of some alumina plants, the commissioning of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the southwest, and low warehouse receipts, the supply of alumina is tight. As the amount of goods delivered to the warehouse recovers and may peak, it is difficult to short - sell under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing are shrinking, and inventory accumulation in the off - season has started, which forms a game with low near - month warehouse receipts. The unilateral rebound space of aluminum alloy is limited, and attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.29% to $15,575/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.1% to 123,660 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel spread increased by 50 yuan/ton. Weekly nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices were at a three - year low, and nickel salt prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support is weakening, weekly inventory has decreased, and supply in July has decreased slightly month - on - month, indicating that the supply - demand pattern may be gradually improving. The domestic weekly inventory of primary nickel has increased, and market pressure is emerging. In the short term, prices will still fluctuate, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods remained unchanged. The weekly TC for copper smelting remained unchanged. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,972 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 3,094 tons. The social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 160 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees remained unchanged. LME lead inventory increased by 650 tons, SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 200 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of low - and high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton. The processing fees of some aluminum products increased. LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,161 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and imported nickel to Wuxi decreased. The prices of nickel ore, nickel - iron, and some stainless steel products remained unchanged, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons, and the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 230 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel inventory increased by 1,165 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 210 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: The主力结算价 increased by 0.2%, and the LmeS3 price and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. The near - far month spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The prices of SMM 0 and 1 zinc increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the domestic and imported zinc spot premiums decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloys and zinc oxide increased. The weekly TC for zinc remained unchanged. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [5]. - Tin: The主力结算价 increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The near - far month spread decreased by 130 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price increased by 2,600 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 32 dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory increased by 51 tons, LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased by 16 tons, and those of LME tin decreased by 225 tons. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts of the near - far month spreads (such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [15][18][20]. - LME Inventory: Charts of the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [22][24][26]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts of the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts of the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts of the copper concentrate index, copper scrap processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are provided [42][44][46]. 3.3 Non - Technical Content - Team Introduction: The report introduces the non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has rich experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. They have all achieved good results in research and service [49][50]