瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 24, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, with 1 - 7Y maturity yields rising by about 2.75 - 3.60bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 3.15bp to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed down collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.07%, 0.21%, 0.29%, and 0.91% respectively. The central bank continued net withdrawals, and affected by the capital gap, the weighted average rate of DR007 climbed to around 1.57% [2]. - Domestically, in June, industrial added - value increased slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales decreased slightly, and the unemployment rate remained low. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the degree of deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, easing global trade tensions. Recently, Fed officials' statements showed increased internal divergence on the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautiously watchful, and there was no consensus on interest - rate cuts, reducing the possibility of a short - term rate cut [2]. - Catalyzed by policy themes such as "anti - involution" and Yajiang water conservancy construction, the equity market continued to strengthen, and the bond market continued to adjust. The long - end performance was significantly weaker than the short - end. If more detailed rules related to "anti - involution" are introduced, it will continue to pressure the bond market in the short term. Affected by the weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space of long - term bonds may be limited, and interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of oscillating weakness. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets. Operationally, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and choose the opportunity to allocate after stabilization [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Volumes - T main contract closed at 108.220, down 0.29%, with a trading volume of 90,744 contracts, a decrease of 675 contracts [2]. - TF main contract closed at 105.585, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 88,969 contracts, a decrease of 666 contracts [2]. - TS main contract closed at 102.304, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 55,229 contracts, a decrease of 417 contracts [2]. - TL main contract closed at 118.250, down 0.92%, with a trading volume of 152,329 contracts, a decrease of 275 contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.20, down 0.03; T09 - TL09 spread was - 10.03, up 0.72 [2]. - T2512 - 2509 spread was 0.03, down 0.05; TF09 - T09 spread was - 2.64, up 0.09 [2]. - TF2512 - 2509 spread was 0.08, unchanged; TS09 - T09 spread was - 5.92, up 0.22 [2]. - TS2512 - 2509 spread was 0.09, up 0.01; TS09 - TF09 spread was - 3.28, up 0.13 [2]. 3.1.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 196,329 contracts, an increase of 2,431 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 201,483 contracts, an increase of 3,049 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 194,743 contracts, an increase of 1,102 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was - 6,740 contracts, a decrease of 1,947 contracts [2]. - TF main contract open interest was 159,796 contracts, an increase of 1,940 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 165,141 contracts, an increase of 4,183 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 176,706 contracts, an increase of 1,546 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was 11,565 contracts, a decrease of 2,637 contracts [2]. - TS main contract open interest was 106,090 contracts, a decrease of 974 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 80,831 contracts, an increase of 926 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 90,943 contracts, a decrease of 2,360 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was 10,112 contracts, a decrease of 3,286 contracts [2]. - TL main contract open interest was 122,606 contracts, an increase of 2,694 contracts. The top 20 long positions were 126,655 contracts, an increase of 3,656 contracts; the top 20 short positions were 126,589 contracts, an increase of 2,682 contracts; the net short position of the top 20 was - 66 contracts, an increase of 974 contracts [2]. 3.2 Bond Market 3.2.1 CTD Bonds - The net prices of CTD bonds such as 220010.IB (6y), 250007.IB (6y), 240020.IB (4y) all declined [2]. 3.2.2 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active Treasury bonds all increased, with increases of 1.50bp, 1.85bp, 2.25bp, 1.15bp, and 1.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates 3.3.1 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5412%, up 15.12bp; Shibor overnight was 1.6350%, up 26.80bp [2]. - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5800%, down 2.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5450%, up 8.20bp [2]. - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6500%, up 5.00bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6150%, up 8.80bp [2]. 3.3.2 LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 331 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 450.5 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Switzerland from July 27th to 30th for economic and trade talks with the US [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, further clarifying the criteria for identifying improper price behavior [2]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th this year, and the proportion of "zero - tariff" commodity tariff items for "first - line" imports will increase from 21% to 74% [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - At 20:15 on July 24th, the European Central Bank will announce its interest - rate decision [3]. - At 20:30 on July 24th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19th will be released [3].