Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:13Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China exceeded the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [2]. - This week, boosted by favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere was good. Mainland enterprises had smooth sales, resulting in a slight increase in pending orders and a significant decrease in enterprise inventories [2]. - This week, the port unloading speed was far lower than expected, while the提货 and consumption were stable, leading to an unexpected reduction in methanol port inventories. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and port methanol inventories may accumulate significantly, but the impact of weather and other factors on the unloading speed needs to be noted [2]. - In terms of demand, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly this week, and the operation of other enterprises' devices was stable. The overall domestic olefin industry's operation rate decreased slightly. Next week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's operation rate will increase [2]. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 632,187 lots, a decrease of 34,449 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 89,760 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 10,134, a decrease of 50 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2037.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 11 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 276 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 218 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.2 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was 18.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.86 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons; the operation rate of methanol enterprises was 82.69%, a decrease of 2.06 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of formaldehyde was 43.65%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points; the operation rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, unchanged [2]. - The operation rate of acetic acid was 90.59%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points; the operation rate of MTBE was 67.63%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points [2]. - The operation rate of olefins was 85.1%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1059 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.74%, an increase of 2.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.53%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 22.51%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.5%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 244,800 tons, an increase of 1700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [2]. - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 725,800 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 87,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 22,600 tons [2]. - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [2].