Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:13Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Views - Corn: Internationally, the good early - stage growth rate of US corn leads to high output prospects, keeping international corn prices under pressure. Domestically, after a round of grain sales, traders' inventories are tight, and they have a strong price - holding mentality. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions has slightly increased, the actual volume is limited, and the delivery speed is slow. However, due to the low profit of deep - processing enterprises and relatively safe feed enterprise inventories, the price increase momentum is insufficient, and the price maintains a narrow - range adjustment. The corn futures market has been in a low - level oscillation recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - Corn Starch: Affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level recently. Short - term observation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2318 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 9029 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume decreased by 3247 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2669 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 2247 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume decreased by 1100 hands [2]. Outer Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 417.75 cents/bushel, up 0.25 cents; the total position decreased by 28569 contracts; the non - commercial net long position increased by 12305 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2408.82 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan/ton; the import CIF price is 1989.01 yuan/ton, down 4.69 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract increased by 2.8 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn Starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang remain unchanged; the basis of the main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2444.56 yuan/ton, up 1.95 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch increased by 40 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder decreased by 2 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sowing areas and yields of corn in major countries such as the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn: The inventories at southern and northern ports decreased by 4.8 and 360,000 tons respectively; the import volume decreased by 30,000 tons; the consumption of deep - processed corn decreased by 57,300 tons [2]. - Corn Starch: The export volume increased by 4060 tons; the industry's weekly inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 1311,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.60%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.40% [2][3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed increased by 981,000 tons; the sample feed's corn inventory days decreased by 0.24 days; the alcohol enterprise's operating rate decreased by 4.62 percentage points; the starch enterprise's operating rate decreased by 4.83 percentage points; the processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin remained unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 0.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options increased by 0.72 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports from July 10 - 17, 2025, to be between 500,000 and 1.6 million tons; Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintains the 2025 US corn yield per acre at a record 182 bushels; as of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 74%, the same as the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2]. Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3].