Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:07Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macroscopically, Fed Chair Powell is facing challenges. A potential resignation could cause financial market turmoil, while Fed rate - cuts would benefit the non - ferrous sector. - On the supply side, the开工 rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to falling lead prices. The supply of recycled lead is tight because of the limited supply of waste batteries. If the supply of waste batteries remains tight, the overall lead supply increment will be restricted. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season, but the actual spot trading is mediocre. The slow inventory reduction of dealers suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not appeared yet. - In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. - The lead price remained in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the operation suggestion is to go long at low prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation was 2,028.5 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars. - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 106,464 lots, up 4,398 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 749 lots, up 1,883 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,259 tons, up 200 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, up 650 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract was - 190 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.21 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The import volume of lead concentrate was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the output of new - energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 0.073 million. [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump criticized Powell again, saying that the FOMC should take action, and "The Fed Whisperer" thought it impossible. - Bessent said they were not in a hurry to nominate a new Fed chair, and Trump would not fire Powell. - US House Speaker Johnson was "disappointed" with Powell, and the legal compliance of firing the Fed chair was unclear. [3]