Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-24 09:20Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a destocking state, and supply is tight before the new cotton hits the market. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a continuous decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising prices. China's cotton planting area increased in 2025, but some areas in Xinjiang face high - temperature heat damage risks. The previous continuous rise in cotton futures prices has digested the supply - tightness bullish factor, and as prices rise, downstream purchasing becomes cautious, leading to weakening upward momentum. The short - term main contract will continue the adjustment trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now, while continuously monitoring weather and macro factors [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 20,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 35,734 lots, down 29 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 360 lots, up 87 lots. The main contract positions for cotton were 518,897 lots, down 19,303 lots; for cotton yarn, 12,081 lots, down 1,767 lots. Cotton warehouse receipts were 9,337 sheets, down 45 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 96 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,728 yuan/ton, unchanged; the landed price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,042 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,438 yuan/ton, unchanged; the landed price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - refined 32 - count cotton yarn was 23,914 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,177 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The daily profit from importing cotton was 1,105 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, down 0.6289 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, up 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.13%, down 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.13%, down 0.11%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.24%, up 0.22%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.64%, up 0.05% [2] Industry News - In June 2025, China's cotton import volume was 27,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.4%, with imports below 100,000 tons for four consecutive months. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 461,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.47%. From September 2024 to September 2024, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 941,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.63%. The upward revision of US cotton crop ratings and rainfall forecasts in production areas pressured US cotton futures prices. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held in Stockholm, Sweden, on the next Monday and Tuesday [2]