2025Q3产业债策略：挖掘“反内卷”下的行业配置机会

Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]