低利率时代海外养老金投资策略专题：低利率下美国养老金如何投资？

Core Insights - The report discusses the investment strategies of U.S. pensions during low interest rate periods, highlighting the significant shifts in asset allocation in response to economic shocks and changing market conditions [2][5][9] - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments into alternative assets such as private equity, real estate, and infrastructure to enhance returns and mitigate risks in a low yield environment [2][78] Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - The U.S. has experienced two notable low interest rate periods: from January 2009 to December 2015 and from March 2020 to March 2022, characterized by federal funds rates below 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [5][9] - During these periods, the U.S. pension system, particularly the second pillar, saw significant changes in asset allocation, with a notable increase in bond and mixed fund investments [2][9] Group 2: U.S. Pension Structure - As of Q1 2025, the total scale of the U.S. pension system reached $44.1 trillion, with the second pillar (employer-sponsored plans) being the largest component at $24.2 trillion [9][12] - The second pillar consists of Defined Benefit (DB) plans and Defined Contribution (DC) plans, with the latter growing in prominence over the past three decades [12][18] Group 3: DC Plan Investment Characteristics - DC plans have maintained a core allocation to equity funds, with significant increases in mixed and bond fund allocations during economic downturns [21][23] - The report notes that during the early stages of economic shocks, DC plans rapidly increased their bond fund allocations, reflecting a shift towards safer assets [23][24] Group 4: DB Plan Investment Characteristics - The New York State Common Retirement Fund and Texas Teacher Retirement System are highlighted as examples of DB plans that have adjusted their asset allocations in response to low interest rates [43][66] - The New York fund has maintained a stable allocation to fixed income while increasing exposure to alternative investments, whereas the Texas fund has significantly increased its allocation to private equity and real estate [44][70] Group 5: Investment Implications - The report concludes that in low interest rate environments, U.S. pensions should focus on increasing allocations to fixed income and alternative investments to enhance portfolio resilience and returns [78]