天然气：LNG投产潮来临后市场格局的变迁

Report Overview - Report Title: "Natural Gas: Changes in the Market Landscape after the LNG Production Tide" [1] - Industry: Natural Gas 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The global LNG market has experienced limited growth in recent years due to project delays and maintenance, but a significant increase in production capacity is expected from 2025 - 2027, which could push prices back to pre - 2022 levels [2][4] - The United States will become the world's largest LNG exporter, but its gas market may face a "long - term bullish, short - term bearish" situation [11][12] - The expansion of LNG supply will suppress gas prices below oil prices in the long run, and the characteristics of the LNG market under long - term contracts will change [18] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global LNG Market Situation - In 2024, global LNG export volume was 544.1 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.45% due to project delays and increased maintenance. Since 2016, the global LNG trade has entered a rapid growth phase, and in 2022, LNG trade volume exceeded PNG trade volume [2] - Global LNG production capacity increased slightly from 631.7 billion cubic meters per year in 2022 to 651.9 billion cubic meters per year in 2024. The Russian Arctic LNG project was affected by sanctions and only showed signs of slow recovery in May 2025 [2] - From 2025, new LNG production capacity will be concentrated in major exporting countries. By the end of 2027, global LNG production capacity will reach 863.6 billion cubic meters per year, an increase of about 230 billion cubic meters per year compared to 2023 [4][5] Production Capacity Changes of Major Exporting Countries - United States: It will become the world's largest LNG exporter. By 2029, its LNG export capacity will increase from 11.44 bcf/d in 2023 to 21.89 bcf/d, contributing nearly 106 billion cubic meters per year of export growth [11] - Qatar: After the expansion of the North Field in 2026, its production capacity will increase, and the proportion of spot goods may increase significantly after 2026 [5][19] - Australia: Its investment is relatively cautious, with limited production capacity expansion in the next three years, and its production capacity proportion will decline from 18.0% to 14.2% [5] - Canada: It will become a new LNG exporter, with a new production capacity of 22 billion cubic meters per year in three years, which can reduce the shipping time to Asia and ease market panic [6] - Russia: The Arctic LNG project is affected by sanctions, and the possibility of normal export is uncertain. The implementation of the EU's ban on Russian gas may affect the Yamal project [6] United States Natural Gas Market - In 2025, the inventory of US natural gas is higher than the five - year average. Although exports are expected to increase in the second half of the year, supply remains high, and inventory is expected to return below the five - year average in December 2025 [12] - The US natural gas market may face a "long - term bullish, short - term bearish" situation, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to demand adjustment [12] Impact on the LNG Market under Long - Term Contracts - The rapid expansion of LNG supply will suppress gas prices below oil prices in the long run, increasing the motivation for reselling long - term contract goods [18] - The proportion of long - term contracts in the United States is relatively stable, while Qatar may increase the proportion of spot goods after expansion. The contract types of the two countries are different, and the influence of US goods on TTF and JKM prices may increase [19]