能源日报-20250724

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a cautious outlook [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicates a relatively clear bearish trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in terms of stars, but the analysis shows a lack of clear drivers [3] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, but low - inventory support and limited upside are mentioned [4] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, represents a slightly bearish bias with limited trading operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market in the third - quarter peak season continued the inventory - building trend from the first half of the year, with crude oil inventory decreasing by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increasing by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists under OPEC+ production increase. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2] - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, causing the FU to weaken. The LU follows crude oil with less volatility and under pressure [3] - The asphalt market opened weakly, with low inventory providing support but limited upside before real demand improvement [4] - The overseas LPG market decline has affected the domestic market. Although domestic chemical demand is strong in the short term, the market is mainly weak due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and weakened crude oil support [5] Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - In the third - quarter peak season, the oil market continued the inventory trend, with crude oil inventory down 0.6% and refined oil up 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure exists under OPEC+ production increase [2] - In July, the crude oil market entered a shock - repair period. The factors supporting the market have weakened, and the recent negative risks are greater than the geopolitical positive ones. Oil prices are under pressure, but may be supported by geopolitical factors at the end of August and early September [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU closed slightly up, while FU was relatively flat. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, causing FU to weaken and its cracking spread to decline [3] - The Singapore diesel cracking spread has slightly declined from its high. The LU has no obvious fundamental drivers, follows crude oil, and has less volatility and cracking pressure [3] Asphalt - The asphalt market opened weakly, was supported around 3590 yuan/ton, and recovered some losses at the close [4] - The refinery production in August decreased significantly compared to July. The demand recovery was delayed due to rainfall. The inventory of 54 sample refineries decreased, and the overall commercial inventory declined. Low inventory supports the price, but the upside is limited [4] LPG - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic market. Middle - East sales increase and North - American inventory build - up are suppressing the market. There is a possibility of further CP reduction at the end of the month [5] - Domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, with good short - term chemical demand. The refinery supply has slightly decreased. The domestic gas may stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, and the futures market is mainly weak [5]