Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The domestic futures market on July 24, 2025, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass had significant increases, while rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and live pigs declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, with varying market outlooks and recommended operations [7]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - The price opened high, then dropped and finally rose to the daily limit. The spot prices in Shanxi and for Mongolian coal increased. In June, coking coal imports rose, and the supply is expected to shrink due to safety inspections and production verifications. The inventory is being transferred downstream, and downstream demand is boosting the price. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and supply - reform expectations are driving up the market, but caution is needed [3]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract opened high but closed low, with a significant decline. The supply is abundant, but the demand is average. Concerns about reduced pig production and the promotion of soybean meal substitution limit the price from breaking through the 3100 - yuan resistance. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Copper - The market is optimistic about trade talks. The smelting fees are stabilizing and rising, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to increase. The downstream is in a relatively off - peak season, and the trading sentiment is weak, but the terminal demand has resilience. The market has strong support below, but the upside is limited due to Fed rate - cut uncertainty and weak downstream sentiment [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and then rose to the daily limit. The market expects supply to be tight due to production limitations in Jiangxi. The production has increased, and the inventory pressure has been digested but remains high. The cost is rising, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The market is in a stage of strong expectations but weak reality, and caution is required [12][13]. Crude Oil - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has eased supply - interruption concerns. The market needs to monitor the subsequent Middle East situation. The oil is in a seasonal consumption peak, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ will increase production, and Saudi Arabia has raised the price. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy at the lower end of the range [14][16]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, but the downstream demand is restricted by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperature. The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the crude oil price is volatile. The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17]. PP - The downstream开工率 is low, and the export of downstream products is affected by tariffs. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is relatively high. With the increase in coal prices and positive policy expectations, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [18][19]. Plastic - The开工率 is at a medium level, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is high. With coal price increases and policy expectations, the market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to buy on dips or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [20]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is restricted, and the inventory is high. The real estate market has not improved significantly. With policy expectations and coal price increases, the market sentiment is better. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [21]. Soybean Oil - The supply is abundant due to high soybean imports and high - level crushing. The demand is supported by soybean meal substitution and is expected to pick up in the third quarter, but the rising inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected to be slightly strong in the short term [22][23]. Rebar - The price showed a pattern of opening low, rising, and then falling. The short - term upward movement is under pressure, while the long - term trend is stable and rising. The supply is increasing due to good steel - mill profits, but the real estate market is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and operate accordingly [24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The price also opened low, rose, and then fell. The short - term pressure is significant, and the long - term trend is rising. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there are still de - stocking and weak - demand problems. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and follow the project procurement and steel - mill restocking [25][26]. Urea - The price opened low, rose, and then declined. The supply is expected to change due to equipment maintenance, and the domestic demand is weak. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the near term [27].
冠通每日交易策略-20250724
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-24 10:25