Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to decline slightly, maintaining a narrow sideways range with a slightly lower fluctuation center. During the overnight US trading session, crude oil rebounded from its intraday low, mainly influenced by a report from a British media outlet that the US and Europe are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement. Driven by this news, US stocks and crude oil strengthened simultaneously. While US stocks reached new highs, crude oil also gradually recovered its intraday losses. In the recent adjustment process, long positions in overseas crude oil have significantly decreased, and market bullish sentiment has continued to cool. Over the past two weeks, crude oil has shown characteristics of declining on increased volume. Although the overall trading volume remains low, when trading volume moderately increases, daily candles close lower, indicating that in the current market's long - short game, even with limited intensity, prices tend to decline, presenting an overall weakening and volatile pattern. On the support side, the lower support mainly relies on the logic of the consumption peak season, but the support from the demand side to the market has weakened both in terms of time and space, and there are no new positive drivers in the market. In this context, if there are no new positive factors, crude oil prices may turn downward [3] Market Dynamics US Inventory Data - For the week ending July 18, 2025, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.859 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 300,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 213,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 908,000 barrels and a previous increase of 3.399 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.135 million barrels and a previous increase of 4.173 million barrels. Crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization rate was 95.5%, compared with an expected 93.4% and a previous 93.9%. Last week, US crude oil inventory continued to decline for the second consecutive week, effectively alleviating previous market concerns about inventory accumulation. US crude oil inventory remains at the bottom of the five - year range, providing strong support for oil prices. Meanwhile, US gasoline and diesel inventories showed a divergent trend: gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, while diesel inventory increased by 455,000 barrels. Although diesel inventory increased slightly, due to the relatively low overall inventory base, there will be no obvious pressure to build inventory in the short term [4] International Trade and Supply - related News - The EU and the US are on the verge of reaching a trade agreement that will impose a 15% tariff on European imported goods, similar to the agreement Trump reached with Japan this week [5] - In May, Saudi Arabia's non - oil exports increased by 6.0%, while crude oil export value decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and commodity exports decreased by 14.0% year - on - year [5] - Due to changes in port entry regulations, oil transportation in Russia's Black Sea has been disrupted. Oil loading at two major Russian Black Sea terminals has been suspended due to paperwork related to new port - entry safety regulations. An industry insider expects the situation to be resolved within one or two days [5] Geopolitical News - Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran will respond to the activation of the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism. On July 23 local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharehabadi stated that European countries (UK, France, Germany) should not coordinate positions with the US. Iran will respond to the activation of the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism and is still discussing whether to withdraw from the "Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons". He also mentioned that Iran has agreed to an International Atomic Energy Agency technical delegation visiting Tehran in the next two to three weeks [6] Global Crude Oil盘面 Price and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 07 - 24 | 2025 - 07 - 23 | 2025 - 07 - 17 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 68.8 | 68.51 | 69.52 | 0.29 | - 0.72 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 64.79 | 64.49 | 66.23 | 0.3 | - 1.44 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 498.8 | 498.1 | 502.9 | 0.7 | - 4.1 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 67.85 | 67.61 | 66.89 | 0.24 | 0.96 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 70.7 | 70.72 | 69.99 | - 0.02 | 0.71 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 71.36 | 70.89 | 69.81 | 0.47 | 1.55 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 0.66 | 0.98 | 1.63 | - 0.32 | - 0.97 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.98 | - 0.14 | - 0.3 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 1.72 | 1.98 | 0.98 | - 0.26 | 0.74 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.94 | 0.03 | - 0.25 | | SC Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 5.8 | 7 | 11.1 | - 1.2 | - 5.3 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 1.9378 | 1.877 | 3.7858 | 0.0608 | - 1.848 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.1022 | - 1.033 | 0.6158 | - 0.0692 | - 1.718 | [7]
南华原油市场日报：美欧接近达成关税协议，宏观利好提振原油-20250724
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-24 11:27