国金期货豆粕期货日报-20250724

Group 1: Market Overview and Price Review - The m2509 contract of soybean meal futures on July 23, 2025, fluctuated in the intraday range, starting at 3,080 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 3,121 yuan/ton, then dropping to 3,077 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 3,095 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The market saw a reduction in positions and volume, with net capital outflows and cooled sentiment. The daily K-line closed in the positive [2]. - Futures market data shows different contract performance in terms of opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and trading value [5]. - On July 23, 2025, the spot price increases of soybean meal in some domestic regions widened. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2,910 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin by 40 yuan/ton to 2,990 yuan/ton [6][7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors Analysis - Brazilian Anec reported that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons (pre - estimated at 12.19 million tons), and its soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons (pre - estimated at 2.25 million tons). The import cost of soybeans decreased, with US soybeans down 16 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans down 13 yuan/ton, and Argentine soybeans down 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7][8]. - The base - difference data and registered warehouse receipt data are presented, with the total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increasing by 170 to 41,446 [8][10]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - The price of the m2509 contract for soybean meal futures continued to rise, but failed to hold above the key integer level at the close. It may show a moderately strong and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of US soybean - growing area weather on the soybean meal market, and the ample domestic spot supply may put downward pressure on prices [12].