Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have increased, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. Coupled with the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.35%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the fundamentals have weakened again, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the overall contradictions are not significant, and the strong raw materials have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, in the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation is focusing on rectifying the "involution - style" competition in the quality field. It has exposed a number of typical cases of illegal competition in the quality field. These malicious competition behaviors have led to a decline in overall product quality, directly affecting consumer rights and damaging the long - term healthy development of the industry [6]. - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 978,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 960,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.24 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For new energy vehicles, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 54.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers' new energy vehicles was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [7]. - In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.41 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.141 million tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 2.1%; 19.44 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194,400 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 0.6%; and 20.8 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208,000 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3,350 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,340 yuan, and the national average price was 3,442 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan, and the national average price was 3,489 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 3,110 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,210 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) was 786 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan, the Australian sea freight was 9.87 yuan, the Brazilian sea freight was 23.59 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 99.85 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.00 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,294 yuan, with a change rate of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,330 yuan, the lowest price was 3,249 yuan, the trading volume was 2,533,253 lots, the volume difference was - 314,207 lots, the open interest was 1,906,352 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 16,346 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,456 yuan, with a change rate of 0.35%, the highest price was 3,484 yuan, the lowest price was 3,406 yuan, the trading volume was 852,865 lots, the volume difference was - 233,709 lots, the open interest was 1,507,782 lots, and the open - interest difference was 12,461 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 811.0 yuan, with a change rate of - 0.55%, the highest price was 822.5 yuan, the lowest price was 803.5 yuan, the trading volume was 398,654 lots, the volume difference was - 86,357 lots, the open interest was 562,835 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 17,104 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, and steel - mill production - related charts such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [13][18][29] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 29,000 tons month - on - month, and the demand improved with a week - on - week increase in weekly apparent demand of 104,100 tons. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level, and attention should be paid to policy changes [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output decreased by 36,500 tons month - on - month, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 85,500 tons. Although the high - frequency trading volume is acceptable, the external risks may ferment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [34]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved. The terminal consumption of iron ore has increased, and the supply has decreased. The optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [35].
现实矛盾不大，钢矿高位运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-24 12:00