国金期货豆油期货日报-20250724

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The soybean oil futures market is in a weak state, with intensified competition between international cost support and loose domestic supply - demand. Short - term market volatility is increased by US soybean产区 weather disturbances and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on August 1st, but high domestic inventory and weak palm oil exports limit the upward momentum. In the medium term, soybean oil is expected to maintain a pattern of bottom - building through oscillations [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overall Performance - On July 22, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2509 closed at 8,076 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or - 0.59% from the previous day. The trading volume was 297,000 lots, and the open interest was 521,000 lots. In the spot market, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,230 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume in the futures market shrank by 5.4% month - on - month, and the open interest decreased, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The spot market price also declined, with positive basis but light trading [3]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Internationally, the soybean oil market is significantly affected by weather disturbances in US soybean - growing areas and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68% due to continuous high - temperature pressure in the Midwest. Although rainfall in some areas has alleviated the drought, high - temperature risks remain in the next two weeks, supporting the cost side of the external market. With the August 1st tariff negotiation deadline approaching, the EU has prepared counter - measures, and the market is worried about trade frictions affecting the global soybean supply chain. - Domestically, the supply is loose, with continuous accumulation of soybean oil inventory and high pressure on oil mills to prompt delivery. Southern high - temperature weather suppresses catering consumption, and slow terminal pick - up of goods depresses the spot basis. The sentiment in the international oil market has cooled down. From July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 3.5% - 7.3% month - on - month, while production increased by 6.19%, weakening the supply - demand situation and indirectly dragging down soybean oil. However, biodiesel policies still provide support, as the US biodiesel tax credit policy continues to limit the downside space of oils [8][9]. 3.3 Conclusion and Outlook - The soybean oil futures contract y2509 continues to be weak. In the short term, weather disturbances in US soybean - growing areas and the tariff negotiation deadline on August 1st increase market volatility and raise the risk premium of the external market. But high domestic inventory and weak palm oil exports limit the upward momentum. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of weather speculation, the implementation of trade policies, and the resilience of biodiesel demand. It is expected that soybean oil will maintain a pattern of bottom - building through oscillations [10].