债券市场近期调整的思考

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in the bond market is primarily due to a shift in risk appetite, fluctuations in the funding environment, and changes in market positioning. The "anti-involution" stance exceeded market expectations, coupled with the commencement of hydropower projects, which raised demand-side stimulus expectations, leading to a rapid increase in commodity and equity assets, thereby suppressing the bond market [2][2][2] - From a macro perspective, the "anti-involution" strategy may lower the actual financing costs for enterprises by raising prices. The central bank's actions to lower reserve requirements and interest rates are the main logic for the bond market from 2022 to 2024. Cumulatively, the central bank has reduced reserve requirements by 200 basis points and interest rates by 70 basis points from early 2022 to the end of 2023 [2][2][2] - Currently, asset reallocation is primarily occurring at the institutional level, but there is potential for this behavior to spread to individual investors in the medium term. The demand for mixed equity-debt products is increasing as fixed-income product returns weaken, which may further divert funds from the bond market [2][2][2] Group 2 - The probability of a significant further adjustment in the bond market is decreasing after the initial impact of risk appetite and sentiment. Key points to watch include the potential for a rebound in 10-year government bonds, the nearing of a profit-taking window for long-term credit bonds, and the possibility of increased government bond supply in August [2][2][2] - The verification period for the "anti-involution" effects is expected in the fourth quarter, with potential risks of rising CPI and PPI, which could impact the bond market [2][2][2]