橡胶甲醇原油：偏多因素支撑，能化震荡上行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and potential threats to rubber supply from the military conflict in Thailand and Cambodia [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the sharp rise in domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend as the negative impact of production increase fades, the planned production increase is realized, and it is the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises increased. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 56.6%. From January to June 2025, China's auto production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average开工率 was 72.09%, with significant week - on - week and month - on - month declines. The production, inventories, and the开工 rates of related downstream products showed various changes [10][11]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased, and the commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly. The refinery operating rate was 93.9%. The non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, while those of Brent crude oil increased [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 15,245 yuan/ton | +260 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,480 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,480 yuan/ton | +69 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | - 39 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 478.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 508.9 yuan/barrel | +5.2 yuan/barrel | - 30.3 yuan/barrel | - 5.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rate trends [17][21][26]. - Methanol: Charts cover methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin opening rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts involve crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes [42][44][52].