聚酯链日报：“反内卷”政策提振市场情绪，聚酯链短线估值反弹-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" policy boosts market sentiment, leading to a short-term valuation rebound in the polyester chain [1] - The polyester chain is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with inventory pressure suppressing prices, and the PTA processing fee may be compressed [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On July 23, the PX main contract closed at 6,860.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -123.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,784.0 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -14.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on July 23, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.67 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.45 US dollars/barrel [2] - On the supply side, the PX device operating rate remains high, and some previously overhauled devices are gradually restarting, with continuous pressure from marginal supply loosening; on the PTA side, the Yisheng Hainan device has resumed operation, the industry operating rate has exceeded 76%, and there are few planned overhauls, facing significant incremental pressure in the short-term market [2] - On the demand side, although the downstream polyester operating rate remains at a relatively high level of 88%, the terminal negative feedback intensifies, the weekly average turnover of the Light Textile City has significantly shrunk by 13.9% compared with the 15-day average, and under the pressure of坯布 inventory accumulation, the stocking willingness of polyester factories has weakened, and the marginal weakening trend of TA demand is clear [2] - On the inventory side, the PTA factory inventory shows a trend of inventory accumulation, and the current 5.2-day inventory is higher than the average of the past three years. Under the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the social inventory may exceed the 2 million-ton mark from July to August, and inventory pressure will continuously suppress prices [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On July 23, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 168.0 yuan/ton [4] - From the supply side, the PX futures price has oscillated upwards from 6,778 yuan/ton on July 14 to 6,860 yuan/ton on July 23, and the PTA futures price has also risen from 4,740 yuan/ton to 4,784 yuan/ton, indicating strengthened cost support from the raw material side [4] - From the demand side, the MA15 of the trading volume of the China Light Textile City has continuously declined from 6030,000 meters to 5130,000 meters from July 14 to 23, showing a continuous weakening trend in terminal demand [4] - In terms of inventory, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber are 8.04 days, significantly higher than the average of the past five years of 4.96 days. The inventories of polyester filament POY/FDY/DTY are 25.4/25.6/30.7 days respectively, 25%/15%/8% higher than the average of the past five years respectively, and the inventory pressure of all varieties is significant. It is expected that the industrial chain will present a tug-of-war pattern between cost support and weak demand, and the inventory pressure in the filament link may force upstream adjustment of the operating rate, and there is room for compression of the PTA processing fee [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The report provides detailed price monitoring data for PX, PTA, short fiber futures and spot, as well as other related products in the industrial chain, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, basis, spreads, import profits, etc., on July 23 and July 22, 2025, and calculates the changes and recent price increase/decrease rates [5] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On July 23, White House officials planned to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters on Thursday local time; Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said it is important for the Federal Reserve to maintain independence in monetary policy and has the responsibility to maintain transparency and be accountable; the US Treasury Secretary said the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates now, and there is no sign that Powell should resign, but if he wants to leave early, he should do so [7] - On July 22, the Federal Reserve added a video tour of the headquarters renovation project to the "Frequently Asked Questions" page on its official website; according to Semafor, Trump administration officials were considering visiting the Federal Reserve during the review of its renovation project, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Scott was also discussing whether to attend; the US Treasury Secretary Baysent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered, and if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US [7] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand - On July 23, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 4.42 million meters, a month-on-month decrease of 10.71%, with a trading volume of 3.54 million meters for long fiber fabrics and 0.87 million meters for short fiber fabrics [9] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA futures monthly spreads, short fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester staple fiber production and sales, polyester filament production and sales, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days, with data sources from Wind, CCF, and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [10][12][14][15][17][18][23][26][27][28][29][30] 3.5 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - Analyze the market data of PX and PTA from the supply side, demand side, and inventory side to predict future price trends [38] - On the supply side, the decline in PX and PTA prices and negative basis may indicate supply pressure, and it is necessary to consider device operating rates and processing fees [38] - On the demand side, the current trading volume of the Light Textile City is lower than the average, reflecting weak downstream polyester demand, which may suppress PTA prices [38] - On the inventory side, if supply increases and demand weakens, PTA inventory may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [39] - It is necessary to consider the linkages between various factors. Although the decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, PX prices may still be under pressure if supply is sufficient. PTA processing fees may be squeezed, and PTA prices may continue to be weak [39]