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豆类大幅回落,油脂整体偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-24 13:35

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - On July 24, soybeans declined significantly while oils and fats were generally strong. Soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated weakly, relying on the 5 - day moving average. Soybean No. 2 futures prices dropped by over 1.5%. Soybean meal futures prices fell sharply by over 2%, and rapeseed meal futures prices dropped by over 2.6%. Among oils and fats, soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1.3%, and rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - In the soybean market, with the departure of long - position funds, futures prices dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of US trade negotiations, which will affect US soybean export prospects. In the short term, the market is more volatile, but the rebound trend remains intact. In the oil and fat market, palm oil led the rise, followed by soybean oil. Energy attributes and oil - meal arbitrage boosted the market [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Brazilian soybean exports: In July 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. It is 26% higher than the same period last year but 10% lower than June. From July 20 - 26, the weekly export volume increased by 9.9% [8]. - US soybean yield forecast: South American crop expert Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.335 billion bushels [8]. - Paraguayan soybean exports: In the first half of 2025, Paraguay's soybean export volume was 4.106112 million tons, a 25.1% decrease from the same period last year. The export value decreased by 30.5%. Due to drought, the 2025 production is expected to decline [9]. - Indonesian palm oil production and trade: In May 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production decreased by 7.01% to 4.165 million tons. Domestic consumption decreased by 3.4%, and exports increased by 49.75%. From January - May, the production was about 2.08% higher than the same period in 2024 [10]. - US - Indonesia - Malaysia palm oil trade: After the US reduced the tariff on Indonesia to 19%, Indonesia is expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia is still negotiating with the US, facing a 25% tariff [12]. 2. Spot Market Prices - The prices of imported second - class soybeans in Dalian and the average soybean price remained unchanged. The prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and the average price decreased. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions increased [13][15]. 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The pressing profits of oil mills vary by location and the type of soybeans used (domestic or imported). For example, in Heilongjiang, the profit is 3.40 yuan/ton, while in Dalian (domestic), it is - 219.60 yuan/ton [16]. 4. Related Charts - The document mentions multiple charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27].