银河期货航运日报-20250724

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The shipping market continues to debate the peak of the peak season and the rate of freight decline. The EC market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - US tariff negotiations next week [3]. - For container shipping, the spot freight rate remains stable, and the freight rate is in the process of building a high - level bottom. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship schedule adjustment and the final tariff negotiation results [3][4]. - For dry bulk shipping, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose to its highest level in over a year, driven by the strong rise of the Capesize ship freight index. The short - term freight rate of large - ship markets is expected to be supported, while the medium - ship market may face weakening upward momentum [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On July 24, EC2510 closed at 1583.9 points, up 3.05% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2400.50 points, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%, and the spot freight rate remained stable [3]. - Tariff Situation: The US and the EU are in tariff negotiations. The EU has passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff measure on US products. Attention should be paid to the actual tariff collection and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [3]. - Trading Strategies - Single - side: Adopt the idea of batch - layout short - selling on the EC2510 off - season contract at high points, and conduct rolling operations with good position control [5]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - Spot Freight Rate: Mainstream shipping companies' quotes are differentiated. Some shipping companies with good cargo - booking conditions are still slightly increasing the freight rate at the beginning of August. The current freight rate is building a high - level bottom, and attention should be paid to subsequent transactions [4]. - Supply and Demand: July - August is the traditional peak season for the European line, but this year, the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be considered. The shipping capacity in July and August has slightly decreased [4]. - Tariff Impact: Trump has extended the tariff exemption period to August 1, and the proposed additional tariffs on other countries may suppress China's export and re - export trade. Attention should be paid to the shipping rhythm and negotiation results [4]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The EU is preparing to impose a 30% tariff on US goods worth 10 billion euros if no agreement is reached. Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement to avoid a significant tariff increase [7]. - The cease - fire negotiation between Palestine and Israel is in progress, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress [4]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping 3.2.1 Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: On July 23, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 85 points, or 4.18%, to 2120 points, the highest since July 2024. The Capesize ship freight index rose 278 points, or 9.1%, to 3339 points, reaching a five - week high [10]. - Spot Freight Rate: On July 23, the freight rate of the Capesize ship's iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.88 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.31%. As of July 18, the freight rate of the Capesize ship's coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Rotterdam was 17.50 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 23.24% [11]. - Shipping Data - Iron Ore: From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased by 122000 tons month - on - month. The shipping volume from Australia to China increased by 13500 tons month - on - month [12]. - Grain: In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipment was 7436800 tons. The predicted soybean export volume from July 20 to July 26 was 2.8107 million tons, showing a cooling trend [13]. 3.2.2 Logic Analysis - Capesize Ship: The cargo volume in the Capesize ship market increased, the shipping capacity in the Atlantic market was tight, and the shipowners were active in raising prices, leading to a rise in freight rates [14]. - Panamax Ship: The transportation demand for grain and coal in the Panamax ship market was low, and the market wait - and - see sentiment increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in freight rates [14]. - Market Outlook: The short - term freight rate of large - ship markets is expected to be supported, while the medium - ship market may face weakening upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the iron ore shipping demand in mid - early August and the import coal market situation [14]. 3.2.3 Industry News - In June 2025, the world's crude steel production decreased by 5.8% year - on - year to 151.4 million tons, and China's crude steel production decreased by 9.2% year - on - year to 83.2 million tons [15]. - Driven by the increased demand of JSW Steel, India's iron ore imports are expected to increase this year [17].