2025年上半年地方政府债券市场观察及下半年展望：年内隐债置换基本完成，二季度发行规模创同期历史新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative issuance of local government bonds reached 5.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.18%, hitting a record high for the same period. The issuance of government special bonds for implicit debt replacement reached 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan, and the implicit debt replacement was basically completed within the year [2]. - The third - quarter planned issuance scale will not change much compared with the first and second quarters. The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented more quickly. In the short term, the downward space for the issuance interest rate of local government bonds is limited, and there is a possibility of periodic fluctuations. The strict supervision of local government debt will continue, and the debt - resolution thinking will shift to "both risk prevention and development promotion", with further differentiation in debt - resolution resources and local investment and financing space [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Implement a more proactive fiscal policy, arrange a larger - scale government bond, and continue to standardize and promote the work of land reserve special bonds. In 2025, the fiscal deficit rate is set at about 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan. The total new government debt scale in 2025 is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. Policies are also introduced to support land reserve work and promote the stabilization of the real estate market [4][5]. - Promote local implementation of the implicit debt replacement policy and improve government investment efficiency. From 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan of local government debt quota is approved each year to replace the stock implicit debt. In the first half of 2025, 90% of the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement quota has been issued, effectively relieving the local debt - resolution pressure [6]. - Improve the local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system, optimize the special bond management mechanism, and strengthen the in - depth supervision of local government special bonds. The "iron - clad rule" of no new implicit debt is emphasized, and the accountability for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution is strengthened. Measures are also taken to optimize the special bond management mechanism and prevent new implicit debt [8]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 3.2.1 Issuance Overview - In the first half of 2025, 1,086 local government bonds were issued, with a total amount of 5.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.18%. Special bonds accounted for 78.52% of the newly issued local government bonds. Newly issued bonds totaled 2.61 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds totaled 2.88 trillion yuan, with 1.80 trillion yuan for implicit debt replacement [11][12]. - The land reserve special bonds totaled 1,708.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an accelerated issuance in the second quarter. The net financing amount was 4.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 135.69% [12]. - The issuance proportion of local government bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased significantly, with a weighted average issuance term of 15.88 years. Economically active regions such as Guangdong and Fujian were the main issuers of new bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [16]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate and Spread Analysis - The average issuance interest rate of local government bonds decreased in the second quarter of 2025 after a slight increase in February. The average issuance interest rates in the first and second quarters were 1.94% and 1.85% respectively [22]. - The spreads in the first and second quarters of 2025 widened quarter - on - quarter, with significant differentiation among provinces. In the second quarter of 2025, Inner Mongolia had the highest average issuance spread for 10 - year local bonds, followed by Hunan and Guangxi [25]. 3.2.3 Investment Areas of Local Government Special Bonds - In the first half of 2025, infrastructure remained the main focus of special bond funds, and many cities restarted the issuance of land reserve special bonds. The top three investment areas were transportation infrastructure construction, urban - rural development, and railway tracks, accounting for 48.43% of the issuance amount. The issuance amount of land reserve special bonds accounted for 6.80% [30]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - The issuance rhythm in the third quarter is expected to be similar to that in the first and second quarters. The planned issuance of local government bonds in the third quarter is 2.73 trillion yuan, including 1.49 trillion yuan of new special bonds [33]. - The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented more quickly, and the acceleration of construction projects in the second half of the year may drive social investment. The deficit rate in 2025 has reached about 4%, and the new local special bonds are arranged at 4.40 trillion yuan [34]. - In the short term, the downward space for the issuance interest rate of local government bonds is limited, and there is a possibility of periodic fluctuations. The local debt - resolution thinking is shifting to "both risk prevention and development promotion", with further differentiation in debt - resolution resources and local investment and financing space [36][37].